Wednesday, 26 April 2017
Tuesday, 25 April 2017
I've been bigging up Lib Dem diversity in the New Statesman
It would be lovely if everyone could follow this link and give the article some love. Thank you all!
My favourite poster from the 2015 General Election
Commissioned by The Independent from Whistlejacket for the Lib Dems.
Lest we forget
Keep sending this image round and every good wish to George Turner (@georgenturner) in Vauxhall #libdems #winninghere
Monday, 24 April 2017
How many times do we have to beat Zac Goldsmith?
Here in Richmond Park, we've been wondering who will be the Tory candidate in the GE. James Cracknell's name has been mentioned several times and the shortlist of 3 is announced today.
Rumour has it that one of those names will be ... Zac Goldsmith.
Which begs a number of questions. Not least, why would all those folk who voted against Zac 5 months ago now change their mind and vote for him this time? He remains
a) A Brexit enthusiast and
b) The Tories are still pushing the third runway plan, which is why he resigned in the first place.
Indeed in many ways I would be quite keen if it is Zac. We do know how to beat him - and if he rejoins the Tories his claim to be a man of principle will be very hard to sustain.
I guess we'll find out later today....
25th April Update
Zac has indeed been shortlisted. Blimey
Friday, 21 April 2017
Spread Betting prediction
Here's the spread betting prediction for the election.
and remember mine...
Tories 337
Labour 205
SNP 48
Lib Dems 35
Others 25
Sporting Index have ignored 'others' but this would suggest they expect them to get 19 - a bit low.
It's dawned on the Tories that they may have made a terrible mistake...
Day 3 and already the Tory spin machine in trying to dampen down expectations. Remember - this whole exercise is mean to be about giving Theresa May a massive majority so she can pretty much do what she likes in the Brexit negotiations. Yet, now we hear...
Which I said day 1 (yes I did) and the saintly and usually right John Curtice said day 2.
Oh Theresa
#Butterfingers
Which I said day 1 (yes I did) and the saintly and usually right John Curtice said day 2.
Oh Theresa
#Butterfingers
Thursday, 20 April 2017
General Election Day 2 - Met Tim Farron, Sarah Olney, 2 hours on 5 Live next to Michael Howard
Quite enjoying this General Election.
Yesterday morning was launch day - on Richmond Green with Tim, Sarah, the media, a dog, a baby and lots of diamonds. Heard Tim say 'we are not allowing a coronation to happen' in about 5 different interviews. Was expertly herded into a donut. Chatted about the non arrival of Richmond Park By Election badges with Baroness Kramer. Great fun.
Then in the afternoon was on College Green, sitting next to Tony Livesy on BBC 5 Live Drive for 2 hours, offering the occasional bon mot. Michael Howard came, said some terrible things, and left. Smiled at the tourists. Got caught staring wistfully at Vince Cable. Gave up my seat for Caroline Lucas.
What a day!
Yesterday morning was launch day - on Richmond Green with Tim, Sarah, the media, a dog, a baby and lots of diamonds. Heard Tim say 'we are not allowing a coronation to happen' in about 5 different interviews. Was expertly herded into a donut. Chatted about the non arrival of Richmond Park By Election badges with Baroness Kramer. Great fun.
Then in the afternoon was on College Green, sitting next to Tony Livesy on BBC 5 Live Drive for 2 hours, offering the occasional bon mot. Michael Howard came, said some terrible things, and left. Smiled at the tourists. Got caught staring wistfully at Vince Cable. Gave up my seat for Caroline Lucas.
What a day!
A handy guide to why Theresa May isn't a strong and stable leader.
Theresa
May U Turns as PM
Campaigned for Remain (“I believe it is
clearly in our national interest to remain a member of the European Union”).
Now Hard Brexiteer in Chief
Said there would be no early general
election (11 times). Now called one.
Said wouldn’t do TV debates. Now doing TV
Q&A debates
Rumoured to be announcing that companies
would be forced to reveal how many foreign nationals they employed. Then denied
this was ever on the table.
Class 4 NICs.
Pledged
to constituents she would oppose 3rd runway at Heathrow. Then
approved it as PM
Put Hinkley C on pause. Then unpaused it.
PS - a new one just today!
PS - a new one just today!
Tuesday, 18 April 2017
My on-a-hiding-to-nothing General Election prediction
What do I want to happen? Lib Dems romp home with a historic 50 seat majority.
What (more prosaically) do I think is the most likely outcome?
1. We will successfully defend our 9 seats. The hardest will ironically be our newest - the home of Ham Common, Richmond Park, where we are defending a seat the Tories won in 2015 with a 20k+ majority, and we wont have the benefit of thousands of activists descending on us every week. Needless to say we will be fighting hard.
By the way - WHERE'S MY RICHMOND PARK VICTORY BADGE?)
2. We will win around half of our target seats - and we'll end up with 30- 40 seats in Parliament.
3. SNP will defend most of theirs and end up with around 50. They'll lose a couple to us and at least one more to the Tories.
4. Many of our wins will come at the expense of the Tories in the South West and London. Let's say the Tories lose around 25 seats this way.
5. This means the Tories need to win at least 42 seats from Labour in order to defend their majority, let alone increase it. This is in fact easier than it sounds. Number 45 on their target list - Chorley - needs a swing of just 4.4% to turn blue. If we say they won't win any of the non Labour seats above that (there are 5), number 50 - Bury South - requires a 5.2% swing, again well within current polling predictions.
But that's just to stand still
6. In order to get say a 100 seat majority, they'd need to take another 50 seats off Labour. That takes us to seats like Swansea West and needing a 10%+ swing - tough.
7. So my prediction looks a little like this
Tories 337
Labour 205 - which I think would roughly match their performance in 1983
SNP 48
Lib Dems 35
Others 25
A Tory majority of 24. Which leaves things pretty much as you were. And I would guess Theresa May will be in a worse position than she is now. Butterfingers.
Two other things to note - I suspect we may do better than this. A seat by seat examination of our top 50 target seats looks like that.
And I guess its possible that Labour will do worse than 1983. But just how low could they realistically go - not far below 200 I suspect?
Thoughts?
What (more prosaically) do I think is the most likely outcome?
1. We will successfully defend our 9 seats. The hardest will ironically be our newest - the home of Ham Common, Richmond Park, where we are defending a seat the Tories won in 2015 with a 20k+ majority, and we wont have the benefit of thousands of activists descending on us every week. Needless to say we will be fighting hard.
By the way - WHERE'S MY RICHMOND PARK VICTORY BADGE?)
2. We will win around half of our target seats - and we'll end up with 30- 40 seats in Parliament.
3. SNP will defend most of theirs and end up with around 50. They'll lose a couple to us and at least one more to the Tories.
4. Many of our wins will come at the expense of the Tories in the South West and London. Let's say the Tories lose around 25 seats this way.
5. This means the Tories need to win at least 42 seats from Labour in order to defend their majority, let alone increase it. This is in fact easier than it sounds. Number 45 on their target list - Chorley - needs a swing of just 4.4% to turn blue. If we say they won't win any of the non Labour seats above that (there are 5), number 50 - Bury South - requires a 5.2% swing, again well within current polling predictions.
But that's just to stand still
6. In order to get say a 100 seat majority, they'd need to take another 50 seats off Labour. That takes us to seats like Swansea West and needing a 10%+ swing - tough.
7. So my prediction looks a little like this
Tories 337
Labour 205 - which I think would roughly match their performance in 1983
SNP 48
Lib Dems 35
Others 25
A Tory majority of 24. Which leaves things pretty much as you were. And I would guess Theresa May will be in a worse position than she is now. Butterfingers.
Two other things to note - I suspect we may do better than this. A seat by seat examination of our top 50 target seats looks like that.
And I guess its possible that Labour will do worse than 1983. But just how low could they realistically go - not far below 200 I suspect?
Thoughts?
