tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-82219019556413734882024-03-18T13:40:41.900+00:00A VIEW FROM HAM COMMONUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1059125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-63971928099133546752017-05-10T10:03:00.004+01:002017-05-10T10:05:10.386+01:00The best "Use your Vote ' ad you'll ever see. It's called FoxhuntingFunnily enough not by a political party - by the Ministry of Sound, from the 1997 campaign.<br />
<br />
Still as brilliant as ever<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6V49mhsqhJM" width="560"></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com58tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-52077628063462396862017-05-09T10:16:00.003+01:002017-05-09T11:06:04.811+01:00The Progressive Alliance have posters up in Richmond ParkInteresting to see the Progressive Alliance are actively promoting Lib Dem votes in Richmond Park, like the garden poster below. I have never seen this before, and it's powerful stuff.<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mdUoSj5-XPQ/WRGI7hysQNI/AAAAAAAAOKE/EXsQqcTUhywZNqPx8X37AZboC9Lg98QnwCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-08%2Bat%2B21.28.46.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mdUoSj5-XPQ/WRGI7hysQNI/AAAAAAAAOKE/EXsQqcTUhywZNqPx8X37AZboC9Lg98QnwCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-08%2Bat%2B21.28.46.png" width="318" /></a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com79tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-88948440715521656632017-04-26T17:09:00.000+01:002017-04-26T17:09:04.304+01:00I quite like direct Press ReleasesLike this one....<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cGc49tQnuxM/WQDGFNS0OLI/AAAAAAAAOJo/qSvJxH2IbQ8ozKpA6rrQUsAb96xRsseTwCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-26%2Bat%2B17.06.52.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cGc49tQnuxM/WQDGFNS0OLI/AAAAAAAAOJo/qSvJxH2IbQ8ozKpA6rrQUsAb96xRsseTwCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-26%2Bat%2B17.06.52.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-58992808073406095452017-04-25T14:07:00.001+01:002017-04-25T14:07:10.463+01:00I've been bigging up Lib Dem diversity in the New Statesman<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-77h7N4-8p1U/WP9J9B_0QPI/AAAAAAAAOJY/MWFRjXhSloQZVUTzm6RRN4uAKX8bsArVQCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-25%2Bat%2B14.06.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-77h7N4-8p1U/WP9J9B_0QPI/AAAAAAAAOJY/MWFRjXhSloQZVUTzm6RRN4uAKX8bsArVQCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-25%2Bat%2B14.06.41.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
It would be lovely if <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/how-lib-dems-learned-love-all-women-shortlists">everyone could follow this link</a> and give the article some love. Thank you all!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-35223968712418826532017-04-25T12:31:00.000+01:002017-04-25T12:31:10.749+01:00My favourite poster from the 2015 General Election Commissioned by The Independent from Whistlejacket for the Lib Dems.<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-W41tE8_7G9A/WP8zdxT2A4I/AAAAAAAAOJI/Q-_wwn10je8KnwQ3udyYDGOoJ3_ryLToQCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-18%2Bat%2B17.05.14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-W41tE8_7G9A/WP8zdxT2A4I/AAAAAAAAOJI/Q-_wwn10je8KnwQ3udyYDGOoJ3_ryLToQCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-18%2Bat%2B17.05.14.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-32225278135363139492017-04-25T10:49:00.002+01:002017-04-25T10:49:26.489+01:00Lest we forgetKeep sending this image round and every good wish to George Turner (@georgenturner) in Vauxhall #libdems #winninghere<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JPajbdehKWQ/WP8bXKBDIrI/AAAAAAAAOI4/Hrk4bTKT3WU0ytOnilbcwoyjd-xBElldgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-25%2Bat%2B10.47.13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JPajbdehKWQ/WP8bXKBDIrI/AAAAAAAAOI4/Hrk4bTKT3WU0ytOnilbcwoyjd-xBElldgCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-25%2Bat%2B10.47.13.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-1289073762825832232017-04-24T18:26:00.000+01:002017-04-24T18:26:07.888+01:00I wish they would stop remaking my favourite filmsThe Usual Suspects<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GgmY5c0_uxg/WP41JSqCDcI/AAAAAAAAOIo/i1q3VI4b2jkjneBvBD7O1c_LjfnbMow-gCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-24%2Bat%2B18.13.37.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="155" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GgmY5c0_uxg/WP41JSqCDcI/AAAAAAAAOIo/i1q3VI4b2jkjneBvBD7O1c_LjfnbMow-gCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-24%2Bat%2B18.13.37.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-83503276702944241782017-04-24T12:03:00.002+01:002017-04-25T18:33:58.962+01:00How many times do we have to beat Zac Goldsmith?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QxhgjDuOugU/WP3be62sipI/AAAAAAAAOIY/Ql0JHW0GJK4GoOHf48W5C-jzQhY_nhe3QCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-24%2Bat%2B12.03.02.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QxhgjDuOugU/WP3be62sipI/AAAAAAAAOIY/Ql0JHW0GJK4GoOHf48W5C-jzQhY_nhe3QCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-24%2Bat%2B12.03.02.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
Here in Richmond Park, we've been wondering who will be the Tory candidate in the GE. James Cracknell's name has been mentioned several times and the shortlist of 3 is announced today.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/might-zac-goldsmith-crawl-back-tories-richmond/#">Rumour has it that one of those names will be ... Zac Goldsmith.</a><br />
<br />
Which begs a number of questions. Not least, why would all those folk who voted against Zac 5 months ago now change their mind and vote for him this time? He remains<br />
<br />
a) A Brexit enthusiast and<br />
b) The Tories are still pushing the third runway plan, which is why he resigned in the first place.<br />
<br />
Indeed in many ways I would be quite keen if it is Zac. We do know how to beat him - and if he rejoins the Tories his claim to be a man of principle will be very hard to sustain.<br />
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I guess we'll find out later today....<br />
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<b>25th April Update</b><br />
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Zac has indeed been shortlisted. Blimey<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-57790388750363910432017-04-24T11:00:00.000+01:002017-04-24T11:00:08.143+01:00Why isn't anyone running this poster....?...other than me, that is?<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w5ZLmL73CxE/WP3Mnp1ttlI/AAAAAAAAOII/dXY8qYm8nvMMh9tymuekkw3yllQQbZW7wCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-22%2Bat%2B23.51.06.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="277" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w5ZLmL73CxE/WP3Mnp1ttlI/AAAAAAAAOII/dXY8qYm8nvMMh9tymuekkw3yllQQbZW7wCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-22%2Bat%2B23.51.06.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-66174147704981918142017-04-21T12:46:00.001+01:002017-04-21T12:46:08.772+01:00Spread Betting predictionHere's the spread betting prediction for the election.<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aPwoRVHbIrs/WPnwUXalBPI/AAAAAAAAOH0/9WzwiFQAhtco0Q8omNGgLUnnFBIC5B3HgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B12.39.52.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aPwoRVHbIrs/WPnwUXalBPI/AAAAAAAAOH0/9WzwiFQAhtco0Q8omNGgLUnnFBIC5B3HgCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B12.39.52.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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and remember mine...</div>
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Tories 337</div>
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Labour 205</div>
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SNP 48</div>
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Lib Dems 35</div>
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Others 25</div>
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Sporting Index have ignored 'others' but this would suggest they expect them to get 19 - a bit low.</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-18518515885507355272017-04-21T10:57:00.000+01:002017-04-24T12:06:02.324+01:00It's dawned on the Tories that they may have made a terrible mistake...Day 3 and already the Tory spin machine in trying to dampen down expectations. Remember - this whole exercise is mean to be about giving Theresa May a massive majority so she can pretty much do what she likes in the Brexit negotiations. Yet, now we hear...<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6-LNubAly5w/WPnW9XKW7VI/AAAAAAAAOHk/zBMDP70V08skdsAes2hBFfV8e5rTBleBgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B10.48.15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="81" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6-LNubAly5w/WPnW9XKW7VI/AAAAAAAAOHk/zBMDP70V08skdsAes2hBFfV8e5rTBleBgCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B10.48.15.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Which I said day 1 (<a href="http://aviewfromhamcommon.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/my-on-hiding-to-nothing-general.html">yes I did</a>) and the saintly and usually right John Curtice said day 2.<br />
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Oh Theresa<br />
<br />
#ButterfingersUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-26691786366879468612017-04-21T10:39:00.002+01:002017-04-21T10:39:42.378+01:00A handy all purpose election poster.....<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8CoiFHuDo-s/WPnTMC8jvMI/AAAAAAAAOHY/k2IxEpgDIp0QVgXnMjzoZNCiBYrHOTdugCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B10.37.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8CoiFHuDo-s/WPnTMC8jvMI/AAAAAAAAOHY/k2IxEpgDIp0QVgXnMjzoZNCiBYrHOTdugCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-21%2Bat%2B10.37.41.png" width="398" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
Thanks Greg Judge!</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-2325987781294911182017-04-20T13:34:00.001+01:002017-04-20T13:34:22.191+01:00General Election Day 2 - Met Tim Farron, Sarah Olney, 2 hours on 5 Live next to Michael HowardQuite enjoying this General Election.<br />
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Yesterday morning was launch day - on Richmond Green with Tim, Sarah, the media, a dog, a baby and lots of diamonds. Heard Tim say 'we are not allowing a coronation to happen' in about 5 different interviews. Was expertly herded into a donut. Chatted about the non arrival of Richmond Park By Election badges with Baroness Kramer. Great fun.<br />
<br />
Then in the afternoon was on College Green, sitting next to Tony Livesy on BBC 5 Live Drive for 2 hours, offering the occasional bon mot. Michael Howard came, said some terrible things, and left. Smiled at the tourists. Got caught staring wistfully at Vince Cable. Gave up my seat for Caroline Lucas.<br />
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What a day!<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_EvXzb6fWVg/WPiqThwRBRI/AAAAAAAAOG4/Cf4fU1eJnGUC04M4vV8mEaPA0Da7Qd4UACLcB/s1600/IMG_8167.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_EvXzb6fWVg/WPiqThwRBRI/AAAAAAAAOG4/Cf4fU1eJnGUC04M4vV8mEaPA0Da7Qd4UACLcB/s320/IMG_8167.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WXq6VYErJ-M/WPiqTseAIeI/AAAAAAAAOG0/CyeZUsYtX_8RVylaC8mudUmxEPeGRGUTQCLcB/s1600/IMG_8170.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WXq6VYErJ-M/WPiqTseAIeI/AAAAAAAAOG0/CyeZUsYtX_8RVylaC8mudUmxEPeGRGUTQCLcB/s320/IMG_8170.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8SuajM1OmLI/WPiqTngtR8I/AAAAAAAAOGw/6PVJOMs0BBwZf86sYyC1X7_0CiKqayweACLcB/s1600/IMG_8173.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8SuajM1OmLI/WPiqTngtR8I/AAAAAAAAOGw/6PVJOMs0BBwZf86sYyC1X7_0CiKqayweACLcB/s320/IMG_8173.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-37292434082444094122017-04-20T12:39:00.001+01:002017-04-20T12:43:22.621+01:00A handy guide to why Theresa May isn't a strong and stable leader.<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US">Theresa
May U Turns as PM<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Campaigned for Remain (“I believe it is
clearly in our national interest to remain a member of the European Union”).
Now Hard Brexiteer in Chief<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Said there would be no early general
election (11 times). Now called one.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Said wouldn’t do TV debates. Now doing TV
Q&A debates<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Rumoured to be announcing that companies
would be forced to reveal how many foreign nationals they employed. Then denied
this was ever on the table.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Class 4 NICs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><a href="mailto:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/22/theresa-may-pledged-to-fight-to-stop-third-runway-at-heathrow-in/">Pledged
to constituents she would oppose 3<sup>rd</sup> runway at Heathrow</a>. Then
approved it as PM<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Put Hinkley C on pause. Then unpaused it.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US">PS - a new one just today!</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CKxV3kvw48k/WPie0Rk7eqI/AAAAAAAAOGg/OCzl_UatH_k8rYWOzHE4VlRjcaAZZBSCwCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-20%2Bat%2B12.42.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CKxV3kvw48k/WPie0Rk7eqI/AAAAAAAAOGg/OCzl_UatH_k8rYWOzHE4VlRjcaAZZBSCwCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-20%2Bat%2B12.42.41.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-8349399311627343672017-04-18T18:21:00.002+01:002017-04-20T21:10:37.719+01:00My on-a-hiding-to-nothing General Election predictionWhat do I want to happen? Lib Dems romp home with a historic 50 seat majority.<br />
<br />
What (more prosaically) do I think is the most likely outcome?<br />
<br />
1. We will successfully defend our 9 seats. The hardest will ironically be our newest - the home of Ham Common, Richmond Park, where we are defending a seat the Tories won in 2015 with a 20k+ majority, and we wont have the benefit of thousands of activists descending on us every week. Needless to say we will be fighting hard.<br />
<br />
By the way - WHERE'S MY RICHMOND PARK VICTORY BADGE?)<br />
<br />
2. We will win around half of our target seats - and we'll end up with 30- 40 seats in Parliament.<br />
<br />
3. SNP will defend most of theirs and end up with around 50. They'll lose a couple to us and at least one more to the Tories.<br />
<br />
4. Many of our wins will come at the expense of the Tories in the South West and London. Let's say the Tories lose around 25 seats this way.<br />
<br />
5. This means the Tories need to win at least 42 seats from Labour in order to defend their majority, let alone increase it. This is in fact easier than it sounds. <a href="http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative">Number 45 on their target list - Chorley -</a> needs a swing of just 4.4% to turn blue. If we say they won't win any of the non Labour seats above that (there are 5), number 50 - Bury South - requires a 5.2% swing, again well within current polling predictions.<br />
<br />
But that's just to stand still<br />
<br />
6. In order to get say a 100 seat majority, they'd need to take another 50 seats off Labour. That takes us to seats like Swansea West and needing a 10%+ swing - tough.<br />
<br />
7. So my prediction looks a little like this<br />
<br />
Tories 337<br />
Labour 205 - which I think would roughly match their performance in 1983<br />
SNP 48<br />
Lib Dems 35<br />
Others 25<br />
<br />
A Tory majority of 24. Which leaves things pretty much as you were. And I would guess Theresa May will be in a worse position than she is now. Butterfingers.<br />
<br />
Two other things to note - I suspect we may do better than this. A seat by seat examination of <a href="http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat">our top 50 target seats</a> looks like that.<br />
<br />
And I guess its possible that Labour will do worse than 1983. But just how low could they realistically go - not far below 200 I suspect?<br />
<br />
Thoughts?<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-78644859653972270522017-04-12T15:40:00.003+01:002017-04-12T15:40:37.147+01:00Manchester Gorton: Fighting Hard....<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZHI0EHCwj20/WO48WVDlOKI/AAAAAAAAOGM/w7E4NaLxxxsU2o-yE_fv83vmKVmSA9sNgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-12%2Bat%2B15.39.17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="375" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZHI0EHCwj20/WO48WVDlOKI/AAAAAAAAOGM/w7E4NaLxxxsU2o-yE_fv83vmKVmSA9sNgCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-04-12%2Bat%2B15.39.17.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-43535792854150979082017-03-30T16:47:00.001+01:002017-03-30T16:47:20.520+01:00Theresa May joins the Lib Dems (part 2)You'll remember <a href="http://aviewfromhamcommon.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/theresa-may-joins-lib-dems.html">this post when Theresa May nicked the Lib Dem slogan</a> from last years General Election?<br />
<br />
Well, yesterday in Parliament she said...<br />
<br />
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<br />
Someone sign her up, quick....<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-4097386555444353882017-03-29T13:50:00.000+01:002017-03-29T13:51:11.448+01:00I'll know if Brexit has worked.So, the deed is done and the letter has been delivered - the Brexit process has begun.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/29/article-50-remainers-accept-brexit-irreversible-defeat">In an excellent and thought provoking piece in The Guardian today</a>, Rafael Behr argues the case that there is no going back now. And more to the point, no matter how badly it goes, the Brexiteers will always be able to argue the case that it's only because its not a tough enough Brexit, and if only it was done properly, all will/would have been well.<br />
<br />
The problem as he sees it, it that there's no alternative history to compare and contrast. As Rafael puts it...<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web" , "georgia" , serif; line-height: 24px;"><i>"Pro-Europeans will struggle to disprove those arguments because there will be no demonstrable counterfactual. The claim that Britain would have been better off on a different path will be no more effective than the prediction in last year’s referendum that Brexit would hurt. No one who ignored that warning wants to be assailed with a smug chorus of “we told you so”. "</i></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "guardian text egyptian web" , "georgia" , serif; line-height: 24px;"><i><br /></i></span>
And its on this point that I disagree with Rafael. Because I fear there is a counterfactual.<br />
<br />
While I think on balance, Britain will be economically worse off out of the EU rather than in, this was never my overarching reason for voting 'in'. Indeed, I suspect there's a lot of guesswork on both sides around the economic ups and downs of Brexit.<br />
<br />
No my reason is different - and one where a strong counterfactual does exist.<br />
<br />
I've been fortunate enough to see some wonderful Statesman and women speak over the years- I saw Reagan speak on Capitol Hill, I heard Helmut Kohl speak when I was a student - but the greatest political speech I ever heard 'in the flesh' was given in a meeting room in Portcullis House about 15 years ago - by Michael Heseltine.<br />
<br />
He spoke, without notes for maybe 20 minutes, about peace in Europe. He was informed, authoritative, mesmerising, running over maybe 100 years of European history and arguing the case for why it was the EU that had delivered, for the first time, long term peace in Europe.<br />
<br />
I have never forgotten it.<br />
<br />
I am also of an age that I grew up at a time - the 1970s - when the Second World War may have seemed to us as children as ancient history, but we played football around the air raid shelters in the park, and the railings of the houses in our streets were just stumps in the wall, the metal having been removed (we were told) to make munitions. This makes peace seem a little more fragile perhaps than many people remember.<br />
<br />
Similarly war in Europe is not a remote, ludicrous proposition. What we often refer to quite glibly as 'the troubles' <a href="http://aviewfromhamcommon.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/remembering-miles-amos.html">is anything but a distance memory</a>, and we have had war in Europe in the recent past, and indeed in the Ukraine right now. It's not coincidence that no EU country has been involved in this.<br />
<br />
So my counterfactual for Brexit is this; peace in Western Europe for the next 44 years.<br />
<br />
Anything less and Brexit is a failure.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-55091461264719243192017-03-28T13:40:00.001+01:002017-03-28T20:41:16.866+01:00Some folk think we're going to win Manchester Gorton<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BKFXx96YDXw/WNpZj5Dq3mI/AAAAAAAAOFA/uBDljkFcU8objMATyTFnmIhx3MG1otW-QCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B13.38.25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BKFXx96YDXw/WNpZj5Dq3mI/AAAAAAAAOFA/uBDljkFcU8objMATyTFnmIhx3MG1otW-QCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B13.38.25.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
When Gerald Kaufmann passed away, and we knew there would be a by election in Manchester Gorton, the odds given on a Lib Dem Victory were 7:1. 48 hours later they had drifted, out to 10:1<br />
<br />
In itself these odds seemed slightly mean as we came 5th in the seat in the 2015 General Election. And Kaufmann took over 67% of the vote. Making a victory v. unlikely. Although this hides the fact that in '97, '01, '05 and '10 we'd come consistently second.<br />
<br />
Today, the odds on us winning have dropped to just 4:1<br />
<br />
This isn't because the bookies have changed their minds. It's because people are betting on us to win.<br />
<br />
Which is quite a testament to both the campaign being run in the constituency (kudos to all involved) and the state of Labour, <a href="http://www.markpack.org.uk/148922/labours-canvassing-shows-trouble-manchester-gorton-election/">both locally </a>and nationally.<br />
<br />
5 weeks to go.<br />
<br />
And remember we weren't winning in Richmond Park until the last 48 hours...<br />
<br />
UPDATE<br />
<br />
Manchester Greens have just tweeted me to say they think they will win. We'll see....<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lEMZM2to-L4/WNqEKpUX9yI/AAAAAAAAOFQ/5Ze3W4UFvnQboSzKV3VPzbBWR1cJoSk5gCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B16.41.10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="48" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lEMZM2to-L4/WNqEKpUX9yI/AAAAAAAAOFQ/5Ze3W4UFvnQboSzKV3VPzbBWR1cJoSk5gCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B16.41.10.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
UPDATE 2<br />
<br />
I have bet £1 on odds of 1000-1 with a Labour supporter that we'll win Gorton; also interestingly more money now being bet on Lib Dems than any other party. Also UKIP nowhere.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wa39uEggj0E/WNq8J0M6BjI/AAAAAAAAOFg/eZ2vvVrTF8I4xGfIS3SHzzXHg7yxIiTYQCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B20.37.43.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wa39uEggj0E/WNq8J0M6BjI/AAAAAAAAOFg/eZ2vvVrTF8I4xGfIS3SHzzXHg7yxIiTYQCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B20.37.43.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-479752921963408542017-03-25T18:07:00.000+00:002017-03-25T18:07:00.486+00:00Lib Dems have the best protest signsNo Contest<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BevmT8pTRMI/WNaxrcD3T-I/AAAAAAAAOEw/UEX9joPXnSo4QAo2FuEbeC9wKhtoZQMGwCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-25%2Bat%2B18.04.34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BevmT8pTRMI/WNaxrcD3T-I/AAAAAAAAOEw/UEX9joPXnSo4QAo2FuEbeC9wKhtoZQMGwCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-25%2Bat%2B18.04.34.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-85469110252501735162017-03-22T10:38:00.000+00:002017-03-22T10:38:32.577+00:00Ed Stone 2: the lunacy continues...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zFCbUQqkIiQ/WNJNbXjFwnI/AAAAAAAAOEY/PvdACGEiuzAs9NVAfy2Jj7qx5sgHTrTOgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-22%2Bat%2B10.09.13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zFCbUQqkIiQ/WNJNbXjFwnI/AAAAAAAAOEY/PvdACGEiuzAs9NVAfy2Jj7qx5sgHTrTOgCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-22%2Bat%2B10.09.13.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We all remember the madness of the Ed Stone. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not so much the image of the Leader of the Opposition standing in a wet and windswept car park next to a giant slab of granite that had to be held up by scaffolding to prevent it crushing poor Ed.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But more the vacuousness of the 'promises' made - vague, impossible to measure, some them actually meaningless. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">They haven't learned anything.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here are the pledges that Labour will stand on in the May Local elections</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<ul style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; list-style: none; margin: 12px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>To invest in Britain.</i></span></span></li>
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>To offer better health and social care.</i></span></span></li>
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>To create educational opportunities for all.</i></span></span></li>
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>To create safer neighbourhoods.</i></span></span></li>
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>And to provide affordable homes, including more new-build council housing.</i></span></span></li>
<li style="border-image-outset: initial; border-image-repeat: initial; border-image-slice: initial; border-image-source: initial; border-image-width: initial; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now, there's nothing bad there. It's just empty. Which party wouldn't sign up to any of those and pledge to deliver them? </span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I suppose we should be thankful really. Makes our job easier.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-32759521079613013622017-03-20T18:29:00.001+00:002017-03-20T18:32:44.750+00:00Quick Quiz: who is this man?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6PSrD-hwIN4/WNAdxz59KWI/AAAAAAAAOD8/NkGd2n2M2Mkgv8TxFPT2qQwCB5ResiSNQCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-20%2Bat%2B18.21.14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6PSrD-hwIN4/WNAdxz59KWI/AAAAAAAAOD8/NkGd2n2M2Mkgv8TxFPT2qQwCB5ResiSNQCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-20%2Bat%2B18.21.14.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Remember him? Hello? Anyone?<br />
<br />
2 weeks and 2 days ago he looked likely to resign from the US government<br />
<br />
16 days later, most folk can't even remember his name (it's Jeff Sessions BTW)<br />
<br />
What happened in the meantime? This tweet from Trump. Which is still dominating the news agenda<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YvFKNK8EYnI/WNAfQZn2gEI/AAAAAAAAOEI/bqeyjrdGodkT8uOlQSePv0Dnu_riIiIggCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-20%2Bat%2B18.27.47.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="173" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YvFKNK8EYnI/WNAfQZn2gEI/AAAAAAAAOEI/bqeyjrdGodkT8uOlQSePv0Dnu_riIiIggCLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-20%2Bat%2B18.27.47.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Which surely makes it t<a href="http://aviewfromhamcommon.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/trump-throws-dead-cat-everyone-falls.html">he most effective dead cat thrown in politics in the history of spin</a>.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Try and find a mention of Jeff Sessions in todays's news....</div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-74022454901869392482017-03-16T09:00:00.000+00:002017-03-16T09:00:15.541+00:00A General Election? This year? No thanksRecent events have suggested that Theresa May would be wise to call a General Election sooner rather than later - Parliament Act not withstanding.<br />
<br />
Word on the street is that the decision to back down on raising Class 4 NIC payments was made after the chair of the 1922 committee had a quiet word with the PM to inform her that there was no chance of forcing it through with her current, narrow majority. This demonstrates the weakness of her position - and she'll have tougher fights than this in the Brexit years ahead. Given the position of Labour, a far bigger majority seems assured if she goes to the country.<br />
<br />
Her hand may be further forced by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/mar/15/second-tory-reveals-police-investigated-him-over-spending-allegations">the police investigation into alleged election spend irregularities, that has now been passed on to the CPS</a>. If things go badly, the current Tory majority could melt away - making the call of a new General Election irresistible.<br />
<br />
Now - thanks to the Parliament Act, that election will only occur with support across the political divide in the Commons - and current thinking seems to suggest that we would be delighted to acquiesce. Cheered by Richmond Park, polling (<a href="http://neilmonnery.co.uk/2017/03/02/lib-dems-polling-23-london/">as Neil Monnery has pointed ou</a>t) at 23% in London, and coming from such a low base, we can only (surely) improve our Parliamentary standing.<br />
<br />
But, I fear it will be a case of be careful what you wish for. However well we do, a Labour implosion suggests we will see a new Tory government with a much bigger majority, and a fresh 5 year mandate. Who knows the havoc they will wreak with such a majority. And there will be little we can do to stop it.<br />
<br />
I fear I'd rather see a Tory PM defending a wafer thin majority while she negotiated Brexit, rather than a braying mass of Brexit maniacs sitting behind her.<br />
<br />
It seems to me to be the lesser of 2 evils.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-88168759522781789582017-03-10T10:21:00.000+00:002017-03-10T10:22:29.642+00:00Theresa May joins the Lib Dems<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SRKHU8ZWvsg/WMJ-L3UPCnI/AAAAAAAAODk/g6HpEuzLvTYo5ZD4J0t8HqthSa45-9ZkACLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-10%2Bat%2B10.21.00.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SRKHU8ZWvsg/WMJ-L3UPCnI/AAAAAAAAODk/g6HpEuzLvTYo5ZD4J0t8HqthSa45-9ZkACLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-10%2Bat%2B10.21.00.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Imagine my surprise when watching Theresa May try and explain the Class 4 NIC debacle on last night's News at Ten, to hear the PM announce...<br />
<br />
"As the Chancellor made clear yesterday, we will use this moment of change to build a stronger economy and a fairer society"<br />
<br />
I don't know if this rings any bells with anyone...<br />
<br />
(<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08h31qc/bbc-news-at-ten-09032017">see it here at 2.33 in....</a>)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221901955641373488.post-10649559727186531392017-03-06T10:34:00.000+00:002017-03-06T17:27:37.810+00:00Trump throws a dead cat. Everyone falls for it. What's wrong with the media?Remember those far off days when the world was focussed on the question, did the US Attorney General mislead Congress and lie on oath in his confirmation hearings and therefore would he need to resign?<br />
<br />
It was, um, 3 days ago in case you've forgotten.<br />
<br />
What happened next is classic media management by the White House.<br />
<br />
If reports are to be believed, Trump was livid that everyone was talking about Jeff Sessions and his allegedly being 'economical with the acualite' rather than how <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/28/politics/donald-trump-congress-speech/">utterly brilliant his address to Congress was</a> (or not) and <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/02/donald-trump-visits-aircraft-carrier-promotes-military-buildup/98624980/">how great he looked in a bomber jacket and a cap</a>.<br />
<br />
Indeed, we was so cross he told Bannon and Priebus<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/02/donald-trump-visits-aircraft-carrier-promotes-military-buildup/98624980/"> that they couldn't sit on his plane on the weekend jaunt to Florida</a><br />
<br />
But of course what do you do when you want folk to stop talking about something. You throw a dead cat on the table and suddenly, everyone's talking about the dead cat. Which is exactly what this tweet does...<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E1mRgt6WyHQ/WL06IAQhpuI/AAAAAAAAODU/uxjkhg2FQV893R7gwEwluT6ohMEiTkXKgCLcB/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-06%2Bat%2B10.29.29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="107" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E1mRgt6WyHQ/WL06IAQhpuI/AAAAAAAAODU/uxjkhg2FQV893R7gwEwluT6ohMEiTkXKgCLcB/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-03-06%2Bat%2B10.29.29.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Does anyone really believe this is true? I doubt it.<br />
<br />
But every headline since Saturday morning has been about this. I've not read anything about Sessions since Saturday (other than, ironically, it's the Justice Department that he heads up that will have to investigate the claims).<br />
<br />
But if I can work this out - I wonder, how come the Democrats and the media have all taken the bait?<br />
<br />
I despair.<br />
<br />
UPDATE<br />
<br />
Oh Look. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/03/06/daily-202-wiretapping-allegations-accomplished-what-trump-wanted-but-may-backfire-bigly/58bca8bde9b69b1406c75d42/?utm_term=.121327814cdc&wpisrc=nl_most-draw14&wpmm=1">Here's the Washington Post just about 8 hours behind</a> my little blog....Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5