Wednesday, 8 February 2012

You remember how smug I was when the Iowa GOP result changed. Let me tell you about Florida...

Just as with Iowa, where everyone moved on after the caucus and forgot that they hadn't actually counted the votes yet, everyone has moved on to the latest polls, and forgotten that Florida is not yet a done deal.


While no one is disputing the result, the 'winner takes all' allocation of convention delegates does seem to be open to appeal as it directly contravenes GOP rules. So the share of votes in Florida could change quite fundamentally.

After last nights amazing results for Santorum, if Florida changes - and this will be decided fairly quickly -then the race is not only wide open, its a three way race again.

Here's the current state of the candidates, pre any change to Florida.





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2 comments:

  1. Chris Lowe8 February 2012 at 12:36

    This is a somewhat esoteric appeal by Gingrich based on a very specific reading one the rules. Very different from Iowa. Not sure why you thing this is resolved soon. In 2008 there was Florida controversy in the Democratic primary (they moved up so had their delegate count either cut in half or reduced to zero). This was only settled at a DNC meeting very late in the campaign (it was still relevant for Obama / Clinton and was televised on Saturday morning - a political wonks dream).

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  2. Richard Morris8 February 2012 at 15:20

    Oohh, you're no fun...

    well, I'nm pretty sure I read somewhere that they expected the appeal to be ruled on in 2 weeks after filing..but as you say, we'll see!

    Either way - its going to go the wire! :-) huzzah

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