First Past The Post. Isn't it fantastic.

The good folk of Stoke Central know what they want. And they know what they don't want. And what they don't want is... the EU.

The electorate in the forthcoming by election voted 69% Leave in the referendum. We were 5th in 2015 - behind an independent.

So we've got no chance in the by election, have we?

Except....

We have historical strength in the constituency - we came second in 2010. So presumably there's still a party machine and some great activists in Stoke.

And here's the thing. Labour is making all sorts of Leave noises in an attempt to bolster its vote. UKIP will do same times 10. Tories ditto - and the latter two were neck and neck last time.

Splitting 69% three ways gives each party just 23%

Hoovering up the remaining 31% of Remain voters means under the vagaries of FPTP - we win.

I'm not saying its fair or right. Because as we know, FPTP is neither fair nor right.

But I am saying - we might just win.

Which is why our odds have gone from 50:1 to 7:1 today

On a roll