Mary Portas. sorry. Again.

I got it wrong about Mary Portas previously

Now she's opened up a Pop Up Shop in Richmond. It looks fantastic.

And while not everyone agrees with her plans to revitalise high streets, at least plans like 'Love Liskeard' are having a real go at making a difference.

She seems to be genuinely passionate, energetic and trying to achieve more than just hot air.

So sorry again Mary. I take my hat off to you.

Still enjoying the sun

Which 5 Cabinet Minsters have yet to be named as 'safe in their jobs'?

I've been tracking press speculation about the cabinet reshuffle since May and providing regular updates (the latest is below). In all that time, at various junctures, most cabinet ministers have at some point been mentioned as 'safe in their jobs' or 'being left in place'. But 5 haven't, as far as I can tell, not anywhere, suggesting they may be the most vulnerable.

Can you guess who?

The obvious candidates ar e people like Ken Clarke (too Liberal), Jeremy Hunt (too tainted), Cheryl Gillan (the bookies favourite to be fired) or Lansley/Spelman (a tad useless).

But you'd be wrong. All of them have at some point been tipped to be keeping their jobs.

No. The 5 are as follows.

1. Vince Cable.

Yep, that's right. Not once have I read in the press that Vince is safe at Business. I have read numerous times that he is going to be sacked, I have read a few times that he will be moved to other jobs, and I have read twice that he is safe in cabinet but not in post. But I have not read once that he is being kept in Business.

Surprising, no?

2. Michael Moore

Ditto Michael. I've read he is the most likely Lib Dem to make way in Cabinet for a new Lib Dem face, I've read that he's not seen as the best 'face' to lead the No campaign on Independence. I've read that his place but not his post is safe in Cabinet. But I've never seen he is 'safe in post'. And I've read a lot of this stuff...

3. Owen Paterson

The Northern Ireland Secretary who came out - against gay marriage. I've read plenty of speculation that he is being promoted - but again not once that he is staying put. A move seems extremely likely. Though you don't see his name mentioned against specific roles much

4. Baroness Warsi

To be honest, no surprise, with all the speculation. But she is frequently tipped to stay in cabinet, and her name is associated with numerous roles. But looks like she won't be Chairman after the reshuffle

5. Lord Strathclyde

It is a quirk of the current cabinet that the Leader of the Lords is in Cabinet, while the Leader of the Commons is not (Sir George Young attends cabinet, as does the Chief Whip, the Universities Minister and also Oliver Letwin, but they are not members of Cabinet). However, the current Leader of the Lords has not once been tipped as keeping his job in anything I've read. I have no idea what he may have done wrong.

So if you're looking for folk to move (though not necessarily leave cabinet), those 5 are your best bets.

As I'm on holiday and the reshuffle is likely to be Sept 3rd, this may be the last update. So a couple of other observations.

The role with most names attached to it?  Tory Party Chairman (9) followed by Justice and Chancellor (both 7, though Osborne is now named as safe by Cameron  - most of this speculation was early in the summer)

The name associated with most different roles? Gove (5)

And finally I have read that all our curent Lib Dem members of cabinet will stay in cabinet, though possibly in different jobs. Mind you I have also read that Moore, Cable and even Ed Davey may be sacked!

So here is the (probably) final update. Black type indicates I've published previously, red type indicates an update..

Prime Minister

David Cameron

Deputy PM

Nick Clegg

Chancellor of the Exchequer

George Osborne

Vince Cable

William Hague

John Redwood

Philip Hammond

Michael Gove

Theresa May

Foreign Secretary

William Hague

George Osborne

Michael Gove

Home Secretary

Theresa May

Michael Gove

Chris Grayling
Vince Cable

Education

Michael Gove

Liz Truss

Greg Clark

Health

Andrew Lansley

Ken Clarke

Jeremy Hunt

David Laws

Vince Cable

Chief Secretary

Danny Alexander

David Laws

Justice

Nick Herbert

Theresa May

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling

Iain Duncan Smith

Philip Hammond

Ken Clarke

Scottish Secretary

Jo Swinson

Alastair Carmichael

Welsh Secretary

Cheryl Gillan

David Jones

Maria Miller

Stephen Crabb

Northern Ireland

David Liddington

Business

Andrew Mitchell

David Laws

Danny Alexander

Margot James

Environment

Baroness Warsi

Maria Miller

Caroline Spelman

Ed Davey (if the department merges with Energy)

Owen Paterson

Energy

Ed Davey

House of Lords

Lord Howard

Minister without Portfolio (Chair of Tory Party)

Grant Shapps

Michael Fallon

Michael Gove

Jeremy Hunt

Andrew Mitchell

Chris Grayling

Eric Pickles
William Hague

Liam Fox

Justine Greening

Defence

Philip Hammond

Work & Pensions

Iain Duncan Smith

Communities

Eric Pickles

Transport

Andrew Mitchell

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling
Jeremy Hunt 

Justine Greening

International Development

Baroness Warsi

Andrew Mitchell

DCMS

Jeremy Hunt

Justine Greening

Ed Vaizey

Hugh Robertson

And while we’re at it – more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be promoted to the cabinet.

Tipped to leave

Ken Clarke

Caroline Spelman

Jeremy Hunt

Baroness Warsi

Andrew Lansley

Vince Cable (that’s the surprise)(though I have also read my still attend Cabinet as leader of the House)

Cheryl Gillan

Justine Greening (or at least a sideways move)

Owen Paterson (still attending cabinet as Leader of the House)

Michael Moore

Ed Davey

Tipped to be Promoted

Grant Shapps

Maria Miller

Chris Grayling

David Laws

Jo Swinson

Alistair Carmichael

Greg Clark

Lynn Featherstone

Andrea Leadsom

Margot James

Anna Soubry

Claire Perry

Nicky Morgan

Harriet Baldwin

Theresa Villiers

Mark Harper

Nick Herbert

Ed Vaizey

Lord Howard

Michael Fallon

David Jones

Liz Truss

John Redwood

David Liddington

Hugh Robertson

Stephen Crabb

Graham Brady

Who's leaving the cabinet?

Just a reminder - you can still vote on my 'who is leaving the cabinet' poll. It's on the top right of the home page (if you are viewing on the mobile, scroll down, click on 'view web version' and you'll see the poll in the top right hand corner).

Remember - you can vote for as many names as you like, but it's who you think WILL leave, not who SHOULD leave, which I think we all know are very different things...

Have fun.

This blog has gone on its holiday....

Never fear. A few thoughts scheduled....

Asking smart, famous people, stupid questions...

You've probably seen news of the latest 'most stupid  question to ask Hillary Clinton' (h/t to @helenlewis) but if you haven't, here is it...

From Sec. of State Clinton's recent "townterview" in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan:

Interviewer: Okay. Which designers do you prefer?

Hillary Clinton: What designers of clothes?

Interviewer: Yes.

Hillary Clinton: Would you ever ask a man that question?

Interviewer: Probably not. Probably not.

It reminded me of the other most stupid question she's probably ever been asked.

But it also reminded me of this: 

Mo Farah. Our Olympic Local Hero

Yes, I've still got Olympic fever...

Mo Farah lives and works in Richmond Borough  - he trains at the brilliant facilities at St Mary's in Teddington and here's his gold letterbox in Broad Street.

Here's a statement from Liberal Democrat Group leader on the council, Stephen Knight

“Mo Farah has very close connections with the borough, having lived and worked in Teddington and trained at St Mary’s College in Strawberry Hill.  His achievement of winning two gold medals at 5,000m and 10,000m must be an inspiration to so many young people.  The Royal Mail has already honoured his achievements with a gold mailbox on Broad Street, Teddington.  It would be fitting for the council to also honour his achievements by granting him the ‘Freedom of the Borough’.

I'm sure this is a motion that will be passed without debate.

And hats off Mo. I stand in awe.

Is it such a bad idea to give the fiscal stimulus direct to the consumer?

As you read this, I am safely ensconced on holiday several hundred miles away, in some way insulated  from the abuse that shortly may be heading in my direction.

Here's my thought. Let's do a George W Bush, and give future fiscal stimulus direct to the consumer in the form of a cheque.

OK. Deep breath.

Here's my back of an envelope logic.

So far we have seen £375 billion of quantitative easing. This has gone directly to the banks. Of that sum, some 58% is estimated to be...in the banks. They've kept it to shore up their tattered balance sheets. Hence the need for wholesale banking reform and a compulsion to lend.

But here's an alternative thought.

£375 bn equates to around £5500 for every person in the UK.

How much better would it have been had this money gone directly to the consumer (we can argue the toss over whether everyone gets it, just taxpayers, just adults etc - its the principle I'm pursuing).

Sure, many people will use it to pay off debt, or save it. If that's 58% of people, or less, then more money will be piled into the economy than quantitative easing has managed. This article points out how  folk are very reluctant to borrow - so why not give them the money more directly?

This is not a perfect answer. It doesn't for example, solve the problem businesses have in getting hold of loans - although if the money spent by consumers benefits those businesses directly, they shouldn't need so many loans as their net cashflow will be hugely improved. And it is a more creative idea than the QE route, which doesn't exactly seem that effective to date...

Now, George W (and before that, his dad) tried this before with very mixed results. But there are reasons why it wasn't so effective then  - partly timing, partly that government defecit went up hugely at the same time leading to inflation.

And anyway, forget the Bushes. There's another President who advocates exactly this route. This blogs favourite US President.

If it's good enough for him....

The Germans think this British politician may be the most dangerous politician in Europe? Really?

A while ago The New Statesman published a thought provoking piece suggesting that Angela Merkel was Europe's most dangerous politician. It's a controversial article that even mentioned Hitler and Merkel in the same piece. You can imagine the reaction in Germany...

Anyway, Spiegel has now published its own list of Europe's 10 most dangerous politicians. Some of the names are as you'd expect (Le Pen), others are debatable (Tsipras)...and then there's the single British name on the list.

Can you guess who it is...

Here he is...

Click here to see what they say about him.

But remember. Be afraid. Be very afraid...

Who's leaving the cabinet then?

I'm having another poll - on who readers of this blog think will leave the cabinet.

Not who you think SHOULD leave - who you actually think WILL leave?

You can tick as many (or as few ) names as you like. The poll then records total votes for the person, and shows what % of people who have voted selected that individual for the chop.

Have fun. It's already interesting how wide the field is - and it's only just gone live.

If you're viewing the blog on a mobile - scroll down to the bottom, click on 'view web version' and you'll see the poll in the top right.

Conference Agenda. 66 Pages Long. I'm still pondering Page 1.

For those who haven't seen it, the agenda for conference has been published as a PDF and very comprehensive it is too.

At least I think so. I'm still wrestling with the cover.

Now, I am all for singularity of thought. One of the first lessons you learn in comms is 'say one thing, simply and clearly and it has more chance of sticking than any one of half a dozen things said at the same time'.

We say one thing. This is good.

But are we saying the right thing?

Our message is : 'Fairer Tax in Tough Times'.

I can see the attractiveness of this sentiment. Raising the threshold on Income Tax is one of the few triumphs of the last budget - indeed it is almost the only thing left standing - and it is unashamedly a Lib Dem owned policy, a rare thing indeed. Plus we are clearly on a course to continue this process, aiming at raising anyone on the minimum wage out of income tax altogether. Excellent

But I do have a few issues with Fairer Tax as our single central thought.

Firstly, it's tax. Yes we had a good tax policy. But taxes are not popular. They are unpopular. Do we want to be known as the party of tax, be they fairer or not? I'm not so sure...

Secondly, as we're in government, we own 'all' tax policy. Or at least, this is what this line suggests. Do we want to own the cut in the higher rate tax? the VAT rate? The so called Granny tax, Caravan tax, Pasty tax? We seem to be saying we are in charge of fair tax policy? Is that really such a totally good idea?

And thirdly - if this government is about one thing - it's not tax. The central plank of our being in government, the reason we come back to over and over again, and why we put up with so much, is because the single most important thing is - not tax, but deficit reduction. And there's a lot more to that than fairer taxes...

So full marks for technique from me - but lower marks for artistic impression I'm afraid...

Why Vince Cable should be in charge of our Creative Industries

My latest from the New Statesman. I though fairly uncontroversial. Comments suggest otherwise...

Having spent two weeks glued to the Olympics, I am as anxious as the next Brit that we don’t lose the impetus and continue the fabulous development of sport in Britain. But the last two weeks have demonstrated another area at which we beat the world hands down – one that will need just as much attention as our sporting endeavours if we are to continue our world beating performance.

The closing ceremony was a paean to Britain's second largest industrial sector -the creative industries. We celebrated music, the performing arts, fashion, architecture, and design, all of which we are world leaders in. Add in film and video - who will ever forget Danny Boyle’s opening ceremony - and TV and radio - the BBC has had praise heaped on it from around the world - and you understand that both ceremonies are a demonstration of why the creative industries will be key to any economic recovery. Indeed, this is recognised at the highest levels of government - Vince Cable made a speech stating as much just a few weeks ago:

We should be proud of how our creative industries have meshed with technology and engineering to produce products that Britain and the rest of the world wants to buy. British designers from Brunel and Burners-Lee to James Dyson and Vivienne Westwood have been admired around the world for generations. They have all contributed, not only to Britain's reputation as an innovative nation, but also to our economic growth.

Yet strangely, the creative industries do not fall under the purview of Dr. Cable. Because they are managed, not by the Department of Business, but…by the Department of Culture, Media and Sport.

And this seems a touch anachronistic. I am sure the minister with direct responsibility for the sector, Ed Vaizey, is doing a fine job. But the decision to put responsibility for an industry worth around 6% of GDP and employing more than two million people in the UK under DCMS control does smack of politicians having it marked down as, well, a touch fluffy.

Well, it's not. It's world leading, profitable, attracting business from the all the fastest developing economies in the world (who recognise our pre eminent skills in this area) and vital to the recovery. Shouldn’t it be treated as such and given a home in the Department of Business, Skills and Innovation? After all, - Business, Skills, Innovation - it seems to tick all those boxes.

More on the outside space in schools debacle. I'm still livid

Following on from my earlier post on the loosening on the rules over provision of open space in State Schools by the DoE, there has been some clarification.

It seems the rules on selling playing fields remain unchanged (good) but rather, the 'loosening' applies to the provision of play areas and the like.

Which I don't think think is really a lot better.

For example, in my children's school, the playing field is part of the playground. We have an area for chickens, a gardening area with a thriving gardening club, a fantastic wildlife garden (opened by David Attenborough no less), and terrific play and climbing areas.

It would be awful if schools were encouraged to minimise these areas in order to sell land for investment. And we must not allow it.

I now hear Labour are to force a vote on this measure in The House (though I see Tom Watson erroneously refers to playing fields). And that this measure is the brainchild of Michael Gove and Lord Hill of Oareford (C). ie. No Lib Dem involvement.

We would do well to support the Labour motion. Children need more areas to play in. Not less.

Isn't this stark staring bonkers?

We're relaxing the rules on provision of space for school sports? Really? After the Olympics we've just had? REALLY?

Apparently so.

How mad is that?

Given a third of our medal winners went to private school (when 7% of our kids are privately educated), there is surely a case to say that we should be doing the absolute opposite?

Lets not start playing 'who sold off the most playing field' games

Could someone just sort this out please?

Sharpish.

Cabinet Reshuffle Rumours. David Laws back to Government but not Cabinet?

Yes, there have been a whole load more rumours that David Cameron is sitting on a beach in Majorca with a sharpened pencil and a large sheet of paper, reshuffling away...

So here is the updated list. Black type means its a rumour I have published previously. Red means its a new addition. Mention of the current cabinet minister's name against a post means I have read somewhere that they are staying put. A blank against a job means I have heard literally no rumours about the incumbent or anyone else taking the job. That now covers just one department - Communities (though I have now heard Eric Pickles also mentioned in other roles).

Lots of changes but a few highlights include:

Consistent tales that David Laws will return to government - but not Cabinet. Reading this multiple times...

A promotion for Chris Grayling. His name comes up a lot, notably as Tory Party Chairman or at Justice

Sir George Young is consistently mentioned as on the way out - although of course Leader of the House is currently not a cabinet post (just attends cabinet).

Two ministries may merge. Neither of them is DCMS. Could there be a merger of Energy with Environment? And with it, a promotion for Ed Davey (or at least twice as much work...)

Anyway, here's the current list.

Prime Minister

David Cameron

Deputy PM

Nick Clegg

Chancellor of the Exchequer

George Osborne

Vince Cable

William Hague

John Redwood

Philip Hammond

Michael Gove

Theresa May

Foreign Secretary

William Hague

George Osborne

Michael Gove

Home Secretary

Theresa May

Michael Gove

Chris Grayling

Education

Michael Gove

Liz Truss

Health

Andrew Lansley

Ken Clarke

Jeremy Hunt

David Laws

Chief Secretary

Danny Alexander

David Laws

Justice

Nick Herbert

Theresa May

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling

Scottish Secretary

Jo Swinson

Alastair Carmichael

Welsh Secretary

Cheryl Gillan

David Jones

Maria Miller

Northern Ireland

David Liddington

Business

Andrew Mitchell

David Laws

Danny Alexander

Margot James

Environment

Baroness Warsi

Maria Miller

Caroline Spelman

Ed Davey (if the department merges with Energy)

Energy

Ed Davey

House of Lords

Lord Howard

Minister without Portfolio (Chair of Tory Party)

Grant Shapps

Michael Fallon

Michael Gove

Jeremy Hunt

Andrew Mitchell

Chris Grayling

Eric Pickles

Defence

Philip Hammond

Work & Pensions

Iain Duncan Smith

Communities

Transport

Andrew Mitchell

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling

International Development

Baroness Warsi

DCMS

Jeremy Hunt

Justine Greening

Ed Vaizey

Hugh Robertson

And while we’re at it – more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be promoted to the cabinet.

Tipped to leave

Ken Clarke

Caroline Spelman

Jeremy Hunt

Baroness Warsi

Andrew Lansley

Vince Cable (that’s the surprise)(now reading this regularly)(though I have also read may still attend Cabinet as leader of the House)

Cheryl Gillan

Justine Greening (or at least a sideways move)

Owen Paterson (still attending cabinet as Leader of the House)

Michael Moore

Ed Davey

Tipped to be Promoted

Grant Shapps

Maria Miller

Chris Grayling

David Laws

Jo Swinson

Alistair Carmichael

Greg Clark

Lynn Featherstone

Andrea Leadsom

Margot James

Anna Soubry

Claire Perry

Nicky Morgan

Harriet Baldwin

Theresa Villiers

Mark Harper

Nick Herbert

Ed Vaizey

Lord Howard

Michael Fallon

David Jones

Liz Truss

John Redwood

David Liddington

Hugh Robertson