So, as many of you will know, I tracked
every piece of press speculation since May on the reshuffle – kindly plugged by
Andrew Sparrow in The Guardian on Monday – and now… the results are in.
So how did the pundits do? Between them, did they predict every position?
Nope
Here is the new Cabinet. It only includes
members of the full cabinet, not folk ‘attending only’.
Green indicates someone, somewhere since
May predicted the name in the role correctly
Red indicates that no one predicted the
name in the role….
Prime Minister David
Cameron
Deputy PM Nick
Clegg
Chancellor George
Osborne
Foreign Secretary William
Hague
Home Secretary Theresa
May
Chief Secretary Danny
Alexander
Defence Philip
Hammond
Health Jeremy
Hunt
Justice Chris
Grayling
Scotland Michael
Moore
Wales David
Jones
Northern Ireland Theresa
Villiers
Business Vince
Cable
Environment Owen
Paterson
Energy Ed
Davey
Leader, Lords Lord
Strathclyde
Party Chairman Grant
Shapps
Communities Eric
Pickles
Work & Pensions Iain
Duncan Smith
Transport Patrick
McLoughlin
Int Development Justine
Greening
DCMS Maria
Miller
So - 6 departments have leaders who NO ONE in the media knew would be in post. Which I find quite extraordinary. Two - Lord Strathclyde and our own Michael Moore- were the incumbents!
What's more, it was almost 7. No one tipped Vince to stay in Business until Monday Lunchtime.
Which I guess goes to show that predicting re shuffles is very difficult.
And that the media don't have as much of the inside track as you might think
Can I just say that I said all along that Mike Moore would be fine....:-)
ReplyDeleteIndeed you did!
ReplyDeleteAnd, with reference to Lord Strathclyde, there were no rumours to the effect that he was likely to be removed. The absence of any comment prior to the reshuffle should rather be taken as an unwritten assumption by all and sundry that he wasn't going anywhere.
ReplyDeleteOn a personal note, has British politics got to the point whereby public declarations that someone is safe in their job are a necessity? In football, the public vote of confidence is normally dreaded as a precursor for the sack. I am bemused by the suggestion that politics is somehow different.
Actually Mark I did read that Lord Howard was being tipped to become Leader of the Lords (although that piece didn't mention Strathclyde being sacked specifically so I didn't include him on my 'tipped to leave' list.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned when the incumbent was tipped to stay because so often other folk were tipped to get their job. So In Michael's case, I read several times of folk who 'would' be made the new Scottish Sec, but not once that he would keep it. The closest was a piece stating that all 5 LD members of the cabinet would stay in cabinet, but not necessarily in post.
But I take your point about the 'vote of confidenece' thing - which is why I didn't include names on the list if a politician said someone was safe (including Cameron) - it was only if the media tipped it.
Can I say Reporting Scotland on Monday night whilst they tipped Ming Campbell for the job, they also heard that inside people were saying Michael was staying. So i think to say nobody guessed Moore would stay is maybe a tad unfair even if it was late.
ReplyDeletealso who tipped Hunt for Health?
Ah, fair enough, but I was only tracking press and web speculation. And I stopped Monday evening as it had started.... :-)
ReplyDelete