'Oh, so that's who Richard Morris is..." Lord Hattersley on The Daily Politics

'An influential activist' - The Guardian

'Iain Dale, without the self loathing' - Matthew Fox in The New Statesman

'
You are a tinker...' - Tim Farron

Saturday, 25 August 2012

Which 5 Cabinet Minsters have yet to be named as 'safe in their jobs'?

I've been tracking press speculation about the cabinet reshuffle since May and providing regular updates (the latest is below). In all that time, at various junctures, most cabinet ministers have at some point been mentioned as 'safe in their jobs' or 'being left in place'. But 5 haven't, as far as I can tell, not anywhere, suggesting they may be the most vulnerable.

Can you guess who?

The obvious candidates ar e people like Ken Clarke (too Liberal), Jeremy Hunt (too tainted), Cheryl Gillan (the bookies favourite to be fired) or Lansley/Spelman (a tad useless).

But you'd be wrong. All of them have at some point been tipped to be keeping their jobs.

No. The 5 are as follows.

1. Vince Cable.

Yep, that's right. Not once have I read in the press that Vince is safe at Business. I have read numerous times that he is going to be sacked, I have read a few times that he will be moved to other jobs, and I have read twice that he is safe in cabinet but not in post. But I have not read once that he is being kept in Business.

Surprising, no?

2. Michael Moore

Ditto Michael. I've read he is the most likely Lib Dem to make way in Cabinet for a new Lib Dem face, I've read that he's not seen as the best 'face' to lead the No campaign on Independence. I've read that his place but not his post is safe in Cabinet. But I've never seen he is 'safe in post'. And I've read a lot of this stuff...

3. Owen Paterson

The Northern Ireland Secretary who came out - against gay marriage. I've read plenty of speculation that he is being promoted - but again not once that he is staying put. A move seems extremely likely. Though you don't see his name mentioned against specific roles much

4. Baroness Warsi

To be honest, no surprise, with all the speculation. But she is frequently tipped to stay in cabinet, and her name is associated with numerous roles. But looks like she won't be Chairman after the reshuffle

5. Lord Strathclyde

It is a quirk of the current cabinet that the Leader of the Lords is in Cabinet, while the Leader of the Commons is not (Sir George Young attends cabinet, as does the Chief Whip, the Universities Minister and also Oliver Letwin, but they are not members of Cabinet). However, the current Leader of the Lords has not once been tipped as keeping his job in anything I've read. I have no idea what he may have done wrong.

So if you're looking for folk to move (though not necessarily leave cabinet), those 5 are your best bets.

As I'm on holiday and the reshuffle is likely to be Sept 3rd, this may be the last update. So a couple of other observations.

The role with most names attached to it?  Tory Party Chairman (9) followed by Justice and Chancellor (both 7, though Osborne is now named as safe by Cameron  - most of this speculation was early in the summer)

The name associated with most different roles? Gove (5)

And finally I have read that all our curent Lib Dem members of cabinet will stay in cabinet, though possibly in different jobs. Mind you I have also read that Moore, Cable and even Ed Davey may be sacked!

So here is the (probably) final update. Black type indicates I've published previously, red type indicates an update..



Prime Minister

David Cameron

Deputy PM

Nick Clegg

Chancellor of the Exchequer

George Osborne
Vince Cable
William Hague
John Redwood
Philip Hammond
Michael Gove
Theresa May

Foreign Secretary

William Hague
George Osborne
Michael Gove

Home Secretary

Theresa May
Michael Gove
Chris Grayling
Vince Cable

Education

Michael Gove
Liz Truss
Greg Clark

Health

Andrew Lansley
Ken Clarke
Jeremy Hunt
David Laws
Vince Cable

Chief Secretary

Danny Alexander
David Laws

Justice

Nick Herbert
Theresa May
Theresa Villiers
Chris Grayling
Iain Duncan Smith
Philip Hammond
Ken Clarke

Scottish Secretary

Jo Swinson
Alastair Carmichael


Welsh Secretary

Cheryl Gillan
David Jones
Maria Miller
Stephen Crabb

Northern Ireland

David Liddington

Business

Andrew Mitchell
David Laws
Danny Alexander
Margot James

Environment

Baroness Warsi
Maria Miller
Caroline Spelman
Ed Davey (if the department merges with Energy)
Owen Paterson

Energy

Ed Davey

House of Lords

Lord Howard

Minister without Portfolio (Chair of Tory Party)

Grant Shapps
Michael Fallon
Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt
Andrew Mitchell
Chris Grayling
Eric Pickles
William Hague
Liam Fox
Justine Greening

Defence

Philip Hammond

Work & Pensions

Iain Duncan Smith

Communities

Eric Pickles

Transport

Andrew Mitchell
Theresa Villiers
Chris Grayling
Jeremy Hunt 
Justine Greening

International Development

Baroness Warsi
Andrew Mitchell

DCMS

Jeremy Hunt
Justine Greening
Ed Vaizey
Hugh Robertson


And while we’re at it – more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be promoted to the cabinet.

Tipped to leave

Ken Clarke
Caroline Spelman
Jeremy Hunt
Baroness Warsi
Andrew Lansley
Vince Cable (that’s the surprise)(though I have also read my still attend Cabinet as leader of the House)
Cheryl Gillan
Justine Greening (or at least a sideways move)
Owen Paterson (still attending cabinet as Leader of the House)
Michael Moore
Ed Davey

Tipped to be Promoted

Grant Shapps
Maria Miller
Chris Grayling
David Laws
Jo Swinson
Alistair Carmichael
Greg Clark
Lynn Featherstone
Andrea Leadsom
Margot James
Anna Soubry
Claire Perry
Nicky Morgan
Harriet Baldwin
Theresa Villiers
Mark Harper
Nick Herbert
Ed Vaizey
Lord Howard
Michael Fallon
David Jones
Liz Truss
John Redwood
David Liddington
Hugh Robertson
Stephen Crabb
Graham Brady










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