'Oh, so that's who Richard Morris is..." Lord Hattersley on The Daily Politics

'An influential activist' - The Guardian

'Iain Dale, without the self loathing' - Matthew Fox in The New Statesman

You are a tinker...' - Tim Farron

Sunday, 16 September 2012

Stuart Jackson chooses the wrong fight...

Stuart Jackson MP, picked a fight with Nick Clegg yesterday, so cross is he about the loss of boundary changes. So he tweeted this...

Well, he can be as cross as he likes but my back of the envelope sums indicate he's picked the wrong fight there...

First let's look at the 2010 election result in Sheffield Hallam.

Now lets look at the 2010 overall share of vote - and the latest of poll of polls from UK Polling..

Conservative 36/32
Labour 29/41
Lib Dem 23/11

So a uniform swing, Sheffield Hallam would now look something like this ( yes yes, I know, HUGE CAVEATS APPLY)

Lib Dem: 13068
Labour: 11632
Conservative: 10702

Lib Dem majority: 1436

In other words, Nick would win, albeit with a much reduced majority.

Ah, detractors will cry, you're not taking local factors into account. Fair enough. In the local elections last year, as Chris Wiggin pointed out to Mr Jackson yesterday...

Now lets look at Mr Jackson's constituency shall we...

First, the 2010 election result...

Applying the same uniform swings, the result now would be..

Labour: 18763
Conservatives: 16118
Lib Dems: 4216

A Labour majority of 2645

Oh dear Mr Jackson. I'm not even sure I can find many local factors to give you solace. Your swing at the last election (0.9%) was some way behind the national swing (5%).

No wonder you're hopping mad.

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