'Oh, so that's who Richard Morris is..." Lord Hattersley on The Daily Politics

'An influential activist' - The Guardian

'Iain Dale, without the self loathing' - Matthew Fox in The New Statesman

'
You are a tinker...' - Tim Farron

Monday, 3 September 2012

The final reckoning

Here's what's probably my final reckoning of all the reshuffle speculation over the last few months (since May, when I started tracking it).

To the best of my knowledge, here is the complete list of every name associated with every cabinet post as folk second guess the cabinet reshuffle. If your name's not on the list, no one thinks you're going to that post. If you're the incumbent and you're not on the list, then everyone thinks you're being sacked or moved.

Probably one day left to see if anyone got anything right....

NB. Leader of the Commons Young), Universities Minister (Willetts), Chief Whip, Cabinet Office Minster (Maude), Attorney General and whatever they describe Oliver Letwin as are not in the cabinet - they just attend cabinet. Hence these roles are omitted...

16:37 update: finally saw 'Vince Cable staying at Business' today for the very first time. Amazing

4 sept 12:50 update: for completeness sake was also told yesterday Telegraph had tipped Ming to go to Scots Office. Not happening - but as it had been printed....


Prime Minister

David Cameron

Deputy PM

Nick Clegg

Chancellor of the Exchequer

George Osborne
Vince Cable
William Hague
John Redwood
Philip Hammond
Michael Gove
Theresa May

Foreign Secretary

William Hague
George Osborne
Michael Gove

Home Secretary

Theresa May
Michael Gove
Chris Grayling
Vince Cable

Education

Michael Gove
Liz Truss
Greg Clark

Health

Andrew Lansley
Ken Clarke
Jeremy Hunt
David Laws
Vince Cable

Chief Secretary

Danny Alexander
David Laws

Justice

Nick Herbert
Theresa May
Theresa Villiers
Chris Grayling
Iain Duncan Smith
Philip Hammond
Ken Clarke

Scottish Secretary

Jo Swinson
Alastair Carmichael
Ming Campbell


Welsh Secretary

Cheryl Gillan
David Jones
Maria Miller
Stephen Crabb

Northern Ireland

David Liddington

Business

Andrew Mitchell
David Laws
Danny Alexander
Margot James
Vince Cable

Environment

Baroness Warsi
Maria Miller
Caroline Spelman
Ed Davey (if the department merges with Energy)
Owen Paterson

Energy

Ed Davey

House of Lords

Lord Howard

Minister without Portfolio (Chair of Tory Party)

Grant Shapps
Michael Fallon
Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt
Andrew Mitchell
Chris Grayling
Eric Pickles
William Hague
Liam Fox
Justine Greening

Defence

Philip Hammond

Work & Pensions

Iain Duncan Smith

Communities

Eric Pickles

Transport

Andrew Mitchell
Theresa Villiers
Chris Grayling
Jeremy Hunt 
Justine Greening

International Development

Baroness Warsi
Andrew Mitchell
David Liddington

DCMS

Jeremy Hunt
Justine Greening
Ed Vaizey
Hugh Robertson


And while we’re at it – more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be promoted to the cabinet.

Tipped to leave

Ken Clarke
Caroline Spelman
Jeremy Hunt
Baroness Warsi
Andrew Lansley
Vince Cable (that’s the surprise)(though I have also read may still attend Cabinet as Leader of the House)
Cheryl Gillan
Justine Greening (or at least a sideways move)
Owen Paterson (still attending cabinet as Leader of the House)
Michael Moore
Ed Davey

Tipped to be Promoted

Grant Shapps
Maria Miller
Chris Grayling
David Laws
Jo Swinson
Alistair Carmichael
Greg Clark
Lynn Featherstone
Andrea Leadsom
Margot James
Anna Soubry
Claire Perry
Nicky Morgan
Harriet Baldwin
Theresa Villiers
Mark Harper
Nick Herbert
Ed Vaizey
Lord Howard
Michael Fallon
David Jones
Liz Truss
John Redwood
David Liddington
Hugh Robertson
Stephen Crabb
Graham Brady



8 comments:

  1. Letwin is one of the 6 people who 'attend' cabinet but are not members of cabinet. So I have omitted him

    ReplyDelete
  2. I haven't heard much speculation of Moore leaving his brief. In fact everyone seems to think he is doing a good job and should stay. I've heard of Cable being moved but lots still speculating he's staying at Business.

    ReplyDelete
  3. There's been a bit of speculation about him leaving, but more to the point not one single commentator in the press or mainstream blogs are yet to say Michael is keeping his job. Not one. Mind you, that also applies to several other cabinet ministers including Owen Paterson and Lord Strathclyde

    ReplyDelete
  4. Telegraph suggest Sir Menzies Campbell as Scottish Secretary?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Interesting. You also didn't reply re: Cable.

    Anonymous, that might be interesting to see him as Scottish Secretary as he is currently heading up the home rule commission which is due to report soon.

    I think it might be likely that the current deputy leader of the Scottish party Jo Swinson be moved to the Scottish brief.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I would be very surprised if Mike Moore left - he's been very skilful at piloting the Scotland Act through and has some negotiations to do with the SNP over the referendum process. Last Christmas when the Scotland Act was apparently dead in the water, I'd have not expected him to stay, but I do now.

    I also wonder if Danny might get a move - I mean, he's treasurer just now, effectively, so he's always saying no to people and making unpopular announcements. I wonder if Nick might want to put him somewhere where he can actually deliver stuff and recover some of the popularity he's lost just by having a horrible job.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nic - sorry, should have said on Cable no one ever printed he would stay; but then someone did yesterday lunchtime (politics home i think)

    Caron - yes, looks like Michael is staying. conflicting reports about Lynn tho. Troubling

    ReplyDelete