There's an election going on today; how the Lib Dems do will show us how we might fare in 2015. It isn't in Hampshire.

While all the media attention today is on the Eastleigh by election, any notion that the result will reflect how we might fare in 2015 seems quite misguided to me.

It's a one off by election.
It's being fought largely on local, not national issues
We've been able to deliver fantastic on the ground support from all round the country, which we can't repeat in every seat in a general election.
The Tories picked the wrong candidate (he says, tempting fate).
There is a huge 'anti politics' vote going to UKIP - which wouldn't happen in a general election, certainly not to the same degree.

But it seems to me there is an election going on today that will tell us quite a lot about how we might fare in 2015. It's for a vacant council seat on Kingston Council, in Berrylands SW London.

It's a 'Lib Dem' seat, vacated through the sad death of a much loved and admired local councillor. and it's in the constituency of a Lib Dem MP (Ed Davey), and a Lib Dem held council (Kingston). So it's a good test of the 'incumbency' factor

It's been well supported by local Lib Dems - but not much outside there (naturally) - so its a good test of how we do when we only have local resources available (as will be the case in 2015).

And the Tories are the key opposition - as in so many seats at Westminster come the next General Election

So when you wake up tomorrow morning, and the media are full of analysis of what the Eastleigh result will mean for us in 2015 - take a moment to see how the Berrylands election went; I suspect that will tell us a lot more.

And of course - good luck to our candidate, Sushila Abraham!

Update

Everyone took this election very seriously...

and now the result is in. Lib Dem Win!!!!