Tuesday, 28 March 2017
Some folk think we're going to win Manchester Gorton
When Gerald Kaufmann passed away, and we knew there would be a by election in Manchester Gorton, the odds given on a Lib Dem Victory were 7:1. 48 hours later they had drifted, out to 10:1
In itself these odds seemed slightly mean as we came 5th in the seat in the 2015 General Election. And Kaufmann took over 67% of the vote. Making a victory v. unlikely. Although this hides the fact that in '97, '01, '05 and '10 we'd come consistently second.
Today, the odds on us winning have dropped to just 4:1
This isn't because the bookies have changed their minds. It's because people are betting on us to win.
Which is quite a testament to both the campaign being run in the constituency (kudos to all involved) and the state of Labour, both locally and nationally.
5 weeks to go.
And remember we weren't winning in Richmond Park until the last 48 hours...
Manchester Greens have just tweeted me to say they think they will win. We'll see....
I have bet £1 on odds of 1000-1 with a Labour supporter that we'll win Gorton; also interestingly more money now being bet on Lib Dems than any other party. Also UKIP nowhere.
Posted by Richard Morris at 13:40