Whatever are the Eastleigh Tories playing at...?

Ok. We have our candidate. Good luck to Mike Thornton. We're all in #teammike now.

But why on earth have the Tories gone for Maria Hutchings?

She lost last time and in the process saw a Lib Dem majority go from just over 500 to just over 3000.

More to the point, she's a loose canon on the right of the Tory party who it would seem, if she were to win (which she won't), will give David Cameron all manner of trouble. She sounds like another Nadine. This report of her behaviour on day one of official campaigning is extraordinary.

But more weirdly -there's no obvious threat from UKIP to to the Tories in the constituency. The UKIP share of vote in Eastleigh in 2010 matched pretty much their national share - This is no UKIP enclave in the making - which is clearly why Farage has passed. 

So no need to pick a tea party type candidate to ward off UKIP here.

More to the point, surely the Tories best chance of winning in Eastleigh is to win over disaffected Lib Dems. Maria Hutchings, I would suggest, is  more likely to send them the other way.

Ultimately I expect the choice of Maria Hutchings says more about the local Conservative selection committee - in the previous two elections to 2010, their candidate was...Conor Burns - than it does about some considered analysis of the type of candidate that would help them win in Eastleigh.

Personally i'm delighted they picked her. She seems very, very beatable....

Who do the good people of Eastleigh think will the by election then

Probably not the answer Lord Ashcroft was looking for...

I'm not complaining though....

My Eastleigh shortlist; revised and updated...the favourite's dropped off...

...since last night. It's all changed since I had a lot of feedback last night. Most of it totally uninformed so this is still guessing. Scroll to the bottom to see updates of people saying 'wrong wrong wrong'.

*Late Runner --- Justine McGuinness --- Late Runner*

(Sunday morning update - ha; all wrong. Congrats to Mike Thornton - and good luck!!!)

2-1 Louise Bloom   (NEW)

New favourite. Eastleigh Councillor, former member of the GLA, much admired in the part nationally and locally, HOW DID I FORGET HER YESTERDAY???

4-1 Gerald Vernon-Jackson (from 2-1)

Still second favourite but the leader of Portsmouth City Council has drifted in the odds due to the large number of folk saying a Portsmouth Councillor will never get a Southampton seat...

7-1 Tim Leunig (from 6-1)

Drifting as no one showing any interest

9-1 Olly Grender (from 8-1)

See Tim Leunig

12-1 Sara Yong (New)

Not a clue if she's got an earthly. But there's a whisper about her. And she's opening the Conference rally apparently...

15-1 Keith House (15-1)

Leader of the Council, a formidable campaiger who has increased the local Lib Dem share of the vote. Keith would be the nailed on red hot unbeatable favourite if he wanted it. But he says he doesn't...

20-1 Anne Winstanley (20-1)

Deputy Leader of the council, again very popular locally, and a name that keeps getting asked about. But there's no buzz around her on the net so I'm guessing she's not interested

50-1 Martin Tod (from evens favourite)

Should be a million to one on the basis that he tweeted last night that he hadn't applied, which is such a shame, he'd have been brilliant. Can't quite bring myself to put him below...

100-1 Lembit

He's been mentioned. Sure it was a joke....

UPDATE

10.14 Louise Bloom is out. And apparently there's still an obvious name I am missing

11:11 The excellent Mr Valladeres has suggested Sandra Gidley, former Lib Dem MP for the constituency next door; top, top suggestion....

18:24 Justine Baker and Emily Davey also now been suggested

Eastleigh. The Shortlist. Oh alright then. My shortlist

As the good members of Eastleigh gather to decide on their candidate in the by-election here are my suggestions for some names likely to be in the frames, based on no inside knowledge whatsoever. Lets see how well I do...and you know something - this is a brilliant list

(Sunday morning update - ha; all wrong. Congrats to Mike Thornton - and good luck!!!)

Evens favourite: Martin Tod

Candidate at the last election for the constituency next door, a long experienced campaigner much admired in the party and surely it's his turn?

2-1 Gerald Vernon-Jackson

Leader of Portsmouth City Council, Hampshire born and bred. also Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats in Local Government in England and Wales, at the Local Government Association and serves on the National Executive.  

I could go on. Another cracking candidate

6-1 Tim Leunig

All the academic credentials anyone could possibly want, ex Chief Economist at Centre Forum and now at the DfE as a policy adviser. And tipped by Guido (although he also tipped...)

8-1 ( drifting from 4-1 earlier) Olly Grender

Everyone's favourite ex No 10 staffer, Olly was close to Chris so will know the constituencies issues well. She'd be a formidable MP and has all the press contacts any candidate could ever need. Whatever happens though, don't try and contact her on Linked In.

Now drifting in the betting as she has denied any interest

15-1 Keith House

Leader of the Council, a formidable campaiger who has increased the local Lib Dem share of the vote. Keith would be the nailed on red hot unbeatable favourite if he wanted it. But he says he doesn't...

20-1 Anne Winstanley

Deputy Leader of the council, again very popular locally, and a name that keeps getting asked about. But there's no buzz around her on the net so I'm guessing she's not interested

50-1 Evan Harris

Would be brilliant if he stood and wouldn't it be brilliant if he was back in Parliament - but does he want to stand again?

There's my runners and riders. Odds are spurious and made up. Lets see on Saturday...

Update

Couple of other names being kicked around. Stephen Knight (local to Ham Common!) and Dr Prateek Buch of the SLF

Update 2

Now being suggested there is a different person, unnamed by the press, who is very strong contender. WHO CAN IT BE?

So, is this a bit harsh on Chris Huhne?

I wrote this on Monday night, New Statesman published it yesterday. Lots of comments. But I wonder if I'm being a bit cold?

Still it is what I think; and the summary of the piece here in italics - which I didn't write - is absolutely the point I was hoping to make...

Party activists are tired of being told that there is such a paucity of Lib Dem talent that the former Energy Secretary leaves a vacuum behind him.

Twelve months and two days ago I was sitting in the broom cupboard the BBC uses in Millbank for its less than stellar guests, waiting to pronounce on what would happen to Chris Huhne should the DPP decide to prosecute, when the news came through that the case was indeed proceeding to court.

"Oh brilliant," said the BBC researcher who was with me. And then remembering that I may not think this was the absolutely best news I’d ever heard added "oh, sorry".

And of course, this whole 368 day merry-go-round has been the gift that kept on giving for the media, with the recurring theme that it’s an absolute nightmare for the Lib Dems.

It’s really not.  It’s an absolute nightmare for Chris Huhne, I grant you, and I imagine only the hardest heart can read those texts between him and his son and not feel some sympathy for him. And for a party already struggling with a few trust issues, finding out  that one of your former leading lights has been economical with the actualité over and over again is not ideal.

But most in the party, while sorry to see a man of Huhne’s undoubted skills brought down in an ultimately needless way, moved on a while back. We get a little tired of being told there is such a paucity of Lib Dem talent that Chris's departure leaves a vacuum behind him. Ed Davey has moved seamlessly into the Energy Secretary’s seat, culminating in last month’s launch of the Green Deal.

And let’s not forget, if it wasn’t for the Christmas post in 2007, we’d be looking for a new leader right now, not just a new member for Eastleigh. In some ways we’ve had a lucky escape.

For us now, the coming by-election is an opportunity as much as a threat. A test of just how the general election is likely to play out in 2015. Here we are, mid-term in government, opinions polls at an absolute nadir – yet we’re the bookies' favourite to retain the seat. Would we really want to be fighting Eastleigh right now if we had a choice? No. But the party goes into the by-election enthusiastically and optimistically.

I’m sure journalists and media researchers were jubilant that the Huhne story took yet another unexpected twist yesterday morning. But for many in the party, we’d mentally navigated that particular bump in the road a while ago.

A topical example of why #equal marriage matters which every Lib Dem will recognise

As the debate on #equalmarriage winds up to a hopefully successful result, let's not forget that a current high profile court case is going on in which the plea - not guilty on the grounds of marital coercion - is open to the defendent, only because she is straight.

It is written into law that a gay woman could not make that plea, as confirmed to me today by the well know legal blogger

If the #equalmarriage bill goes through - she can.

Interestingly this is a defence only open to woman - no straight or ( after the bill is passed) gay man can make the plea. Another quirk in the law that should be changed.

But at least when the law is passed, one group can make a plea in a court of law that has hitherto only be open to their straight counterparts

In honour of #equalmarriage...

My favourite 4 minutes in all 8 series of The West Wing. Every opponent of the #equalmarriage bill should be made to watch it.




 (Plus it has an extra, unconnected dig that @DrEoinCl may find a tad uncomfortable....)