I've been tracking press speculation about the cabinet reshuffle since May and providing regular updates (the latest is below). In all that time, at various junctures, most cabinet ministers have at some point been mentioned as 'safe in their jobs' or 'being left in place'. But 5 haven't, as far as I can tell, not anywhere, suggesting they may be the most vulnerable.
Can you guess who?
The obvious candidates ar e people like Ken Clarke (too Liberal), Jeremy Hunt (too tainted), Cheryl Gillan (the bookies favourite to be fired) or Lansley/Spelman (a tad useless).
But you'd be wrong. All of them have at some point been tipped to be keeping their jobs.
No. The 5 are as follows.
1. Vince Cable.
Yep, that's right. Not once have I read in the press that Vince is safe at Business. I have read numerous times that he is going to be sacked, I have read a few times that he will be moved to other jobs, and I have read twice that he is safe in cabinet but not in post. But I have not read once that he is being kept in Business.
2. Michael Moore
Ditto Michael. I've read he is the most likely Lib Dem to make way in Cabinet for a new Lib Dem face, I've read that he's not seen as the best 'face' to lead the No campaign on Independence. I've read that his place but not his post is safe in Cabinet. But I've never seen he is 'safe in post'. And I've read a lot of this stuff...
3. Owen Paterson
The Northern Ireland Secretary who came out - against gay marriage. I've read plenty of speculation that he is being promoted - but again not once that he is staying put. A move seems extremely likely. Though you don't see his name mentioned against specific roles much
4. Baroness Warsi
To be honest, no surprise, with all the speculation. But she is frequently tipped to stay in cabinet, and her name is associated with numerous roles. But looks like she won't be Chairman after the reshuffle
5. Lord Strathclyde
It is a quirk of the current cabinet that the Leader of the Lords is in Cabinet, while the Leader of the Commons is not (Sir George Young attends cabinet, as does the Chief Whip, the Universities Minister and also Oliver Letwin, but they are not members of Cabinet). However, the current Leader of the Lords has not once been tipped as keeping his job in anything I've read. I have no idea what he may have done wrong.
So if you're looking for folk to move (though not necessarily leave cabinet), those 5 are your best bets.
As I'm on holiday and the reshuffle is likely to be Sept 3rd, this may be the last update. So a couple of other observations.
The role with most names attached to it? Tory Party Chairman (9) followed by Justice and Chancellor (both 7, though Osborne is now named as safe by Cameron - most of this speculation was early in the summer)
The name associated with most different roles? Gove (5)
And finally I have read that all our curent Lib Dem members of cabinet will stay in cabinet, though possibly in different jobs. Mind you I have also read that Moore, Cable and even Ed Davey may be sacked!
So here is the (probably) final update. Black type indicates I've published previously, red type indicates an update..
Chancellor of the
Ed Davey (if the
department merges with Energy)
Minister without Portfolio
(Chair of Tory Party)
And while we’re at it –
more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major
surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be
promoted to the cabinet.
Vince Cable (that’s the
surprise)(though I have also read my still attend Cabinet as leader of the
Justine Greening (or at
least a sideways move)
Owen Paterson (still
attending cabinet as Leader of the House)