After my piece on muscular liberalism yesterday, I discovered that Nick had continued the theme later in the day in Nottingham, calling our coalition partners views on Europe 'infantile', and saying ...
"My own view is that if I was Prime Minister I'm sure we would be much more committed and positive and try to help them along. The Conservatives have got this total bee in their bonnet about Europe and I'm constantly trying to rein them in from doing what they want to do which is going around crowing, saying 'Ner-ner-ner-ner-ner, we're not in the eurozone', which is their sort of reflex – which is a totally infantile reflex."
There's a full report here.
I must say, I'm loving this new language!!
You can see how someone in HQ got a little carried away and slipped 'bigot' into a speech draft...
Sunday, 16 September 2012
Stuart Jackson chooses the wrong fight...
Well, he can be as cross as he likes but my back of the envelope sums indicate he's picked the wrong fight there...
First let's look at the 2010 election result in Sheffield Hallam.
Now lets look at the 2010 overall share of vote - and the latest of poll of polls from UK Polling..
Conservative 36/32
Labour 29/41
Lib Dem 23/11
So a uniform swing, Sheffield Hallam would now look something like this ( yes yes, I know, HUGE CAVEATS APPLY)
Lib Dem: 13068
Labour: 11632
Conservative: 10702
Lib Dem majority: 1436
In other words, Nick would win, albeit with a much reduced majority.
Ah, detractors will cry, you're not taking local factors into account. Fair enough. In the local elections last year, as Chris Wiggin pointed out to Mr Jackson yesterday...
Now lets look at Mr Jackson's constituency shall we...
First, the 2010 election result...
Applying the same uniform swings, the result now would be..
Labour: 18763
Conservatives: 16118
Lib Dems: 4216
A Labour majority of 2645
Oh dear Mr Jackson. I'm not even sure I can find many local factors to give you solace. Your swing at the last election (0.9%) was some way behind the national swing (5%).
No wonder you're hopping mad.
Saturday, 15 September 2012
As we need a bit of cheering up, shall we have a chat about the Tory leadership campaign.
As William Hague once told David Laws, the Tory party is an absolute Monarchy with a taste for regicide, and so 2 years in to the first government with a Tory PM for 13 years and 8% behind in the polls, the knives are out for Cameron. What larks.
Reports are that so far 12 (or 14) of the 46 Tory MPs required to trigger a leadership ballot have delivered their letters to the chair of the 1922 committee, with a few more looking at their options.
I'd make a few observations about this.
1. Timing - seems a little odd in the election cycle doesn't it? 8% behind at mid term isn't a disaster just yet. What can be driving this? We've had our own leadership mutterings but most in the party agree that nearly 3 years our from an election isn't the moment to change leader. Presumably - it's the Boris factor. Likely candidates know that by changing leader now, it makes it far less likely they'll have to fight Boris. So for the David Davis's of the world, they know they need to move smartish.
2. The 8 % figure is a little disingenuous - because in fact the Tories require an additional 7% net swing in order to secure an absolute majority at the next election. It is a quirk of the current system that the Tories need to win by 7% on current boundary's to secure an absolute majority, Labour needs just 1%. So the most unhappy Tories - the Peter Bones and Nadine Dorries of this world - have with their opposition to HoL Reform (and as a result the loss of boundary changes) made it far less likely Cameron can deliver the majority they crave. Oh the irony. I wonder what the names of the 12 are...
3. Let's just ponder for a moment the fact that the Tories require a 15% net swing over the next 32 months to win a majority at the next election. And the onset of muscular liberalsim is going to stop the more right wing cabinet do much of what they want. Unless the economy does something extraordinary, can't see it happening...
4. The names I've seen so far as possible candidates for a leadership election are David Davis, Liam Fox & Graham Brady himself, with Michael Gove a possible. It's interesting that Osborne doesn't feature - presumably because he wouldn't stand against Cameron, he'll only go for it only if Cameron steps down (as with Thatcher/Major). I wonder if a tiny part of Osborne hopes for a stalking horse candidate now, leading to Cameron stepping down, so he gets a go at the leadership before Boris looms?....
5. If there's a lot of gossip about the Tory leadership, there'll be less about our own...
6. Remember the results of my 'which party will lose its leader first poll?' a few months back. Would folk vote differently now?....
And finally - I bet the last 14 names are a lot harder to get than the first 14 names. This fight isn't going to happen for a while yet...
Reports are that so far 12 (or 14) of the 46 Tory MPs required to trigger a leadership ballot have delivered their letters to the chair of the 1922 committee, with a few more looking at their options.
I'd make a few observations about this.
1. Timing - seems a little odd in the election cycle doesn't it? 8% behind at mid term isn't a disaster just yet. What can be driving this? We've had our own leadership mutterings but most in the party agree that nearly 3 years our from an election isn't the moment to change leader. Presumably - it's the Boris factor. Likely candidates know that by changing leader now, it makes it far less likely they'll have to fight Boris. So for the David Davis's of the world, they know they need to move smartish.
2. The 8 % figure is a little disingenuous - because in fact the Tories require an additional 7% net swing in order to secure an absolute majority at the next election. It is a quirk of the current system that the Tories need to win by 7% on current boundary's to secure an absolute majority, Labour needs just 1%. So the most unhappy Tories - the Peter Bones and Nadine Dorries of this world - have with their opposition to HoL Reform (and as a result the loss of boundary changes) made it far less likely Cameron can deliver the majority they crave. Oh the irony. I wonder what the names of the 12 are...
3. Let's just ponder for a moment the fact that the Tories require a 15% net swing over the next 32 months to win a majority at the next election. And the onset of muscular liberalsim is going to stop the more right wing cabinet do much of what they want. Unless the economy does something extraordinary, can't see it happening...
4. The names I've seen so far as possible candidates for a leadership election are David Davis, Liam Fox & Graham Brady himself, with Michael Gove a possible. It's interesting that Osborne doesn't feature - presumably because he wouldn't stand against Cameron, he'll only go for it only if Cameron steps down (as with Thatcher/Major). I wonder if a tiny part of Osborne hopes for a stalking horse candidate now, leading to Cameron stepping down, so he gets a go at the leadership before Boris looms?....
5. If there's a lot of gossip about the Tory leadership, there'll be less about our own...
6. Remember the results of my 'which party will lose its leader first poll?' a few months back. Would folk vote differently now?....
And finally - I bet the last 14 names are a lot harder to get than the first 14 names. This fight isn't going to happen for a while yet...
Finally: Is this 'Muscular Liberalism' in action?
Photo Credit: Helen Duffett
"Frankly, because of me now, thousands of 2 year olds are to get free nursery places"
When Harry Matthews (@hmatthews92 ) tweeted this from Nick's 'meet the press' session in Cambridge, my immediate thought was 'blimey, someone 's pissed Nick off royally with a question there, he sounds very arsey'. And I've heard him give a, ahem, robust responses to members in sessions in the past.
But on reflection it occurs to me that this is probably exactly the line we should be taking.
More than that, it's exactly the response we should have been taking for the last 2 years up until now.
How much better it would be if we'd been firmly taking credit (and excluding the Tories) for everything good we've been responsible for over the last 2 years - and laying the blame firmly for Tory policy at the door of both the Tories - and anyone who voted Tory. Rather than deliberately adopting a 'hand in glove ' strategy for 2 years (as we famously did).
It's also probably a recognition (as if we didn't know) that Nick, and those around him, do recognise he needs to take a bit more ownership personally of things. I suspect he'd decided to say the words 'I' and 'me' a lot more going forward.
I hope we see plenty more of that sort of sentiment spoken loud and proud in coming months.
I'll be looking out for it.
UPDATE
Ha ha, shortly after I posted this, LDV posted this handy tool published by HQ about everything Lib Dems have done in government.
I imagine this is to support exactly the strategy I suggested above.
You know, it's almost as if they're listening....
Friday, 14 September 2012
Trailer for the new Political comedy ' The Campaign'
I'm guessing something here to offend absolutely everybody.
Thursday, 13 September 2012
If an independent Scotland is forced to apply for EU membership - what about England, Wales and Northern Ireland?
This report in the Telegraph yesterday is interesting as it suggests an independent Scotland would have to reapply for EU membership if it broke from the rest of the UK.
What makes it interesting from my point of view is that, of course, the UK is a legally constituted entity of 4 parts. Thus if one part leaves, the UK itself no longer exists.
Which to my mind suggests England Wales and Northern Ireland would also have to reapply.
Which I'm sure the Telegraph wouldn't think is a bad thing - and would probably lead to an EU referendum about membership.
If this report is right - the stakes around Scottish Independence just got raised a notch...
Wednesday, 12 September 2012
All Ministers are Equalities. But some are more equalities than others....
So, a week after the reshuffle, the reshuffle has one more surprise up its sleeve.
Of course, all Lib Dems will welcome the appointment of Jo Swinson to the equalities role. She will do a fine job. But it does beg a few questions...
1. What did Lynn Featherstone do wrong, that resulted in her having the equalities brief removed?
2. Why did this happen a week after the reshuffle? Why wasn't it sorted at the same time?
3. There are now no less than three equalities ministers - what will they all do?
4. If this was an afterthought...why did it take until the grass roots were in uproar before it was sorted? Is this another failure of the leadership to make the right call on a key area?
5. Why, several hours after the announcement, did the Equalities Department make no mention of Jo's appointment? (I write this on 11/9/12 at 23:12. There's no mention at this time).
6. Was the 'bigot' press release a cock up - or a deliberate conspiracy? Either way - it has fairly obliterated the media message of Jo's appointment.
But despite all that - I am pleased.
Really
Good luck Jo
Of course, all Lib Dems will welcome the appointment of Jo Swinson to the equalities role. She will do a fine job. But it does beg a few questions...
1. What did Lynn Featherstone do wrong, that resulted in her having the equalities brief removed?
2. Why did this happen a week after the reshuffle? Why wasn't it sorted at the same time?
3. There are now no less than three equalities ministers - what will they all do?
4. If this was an afterthought...why did it take until the grass roots were in uproar before it was sorted? Is this another failure of the leadership to make the right call on a key area?
5. Why, several hours after the announcement, did the Equalities Department make no mention of Jo's appointment? (I write this on 11/9/12 at 23:12. There's no mention at this time).
6. Was the 'bigot' press release a cock up - or a deliberate conspiracy? Either way - it has fairly obliterated the media message of Jo's appointment.
But despite all that - I am pleased.
Really
Good luck Jo
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