'Oh, so that's who Richard Morris is..." Lord Hattersley on The Daily Politics

'An influential activist' - The Guardian

'Iain Dale, without the self loathing' - Matthew Fox in The New Statesman

You are a tinker...' - Tim Farron

Wednesday 14 December 2011

How Ed Miliband could be PM by Christmas. ish.

Lots of quotes from Nick last night at the Parliamentary meeting - including this notable one (which I've taken from the Telegraph):

"The Deputy Prime Minister told a private meeting of more than 100 MPs and peers that he would not play "Russian roulette" with the Conservatives over David Cameron's rejection of a new European treaty.

He said: "I don't want to be the last leader of the Liberal Democrats by provoking a general election today." His speech, which was applauded by the meeting, came as a poll put the Lib Dems on just 12 per cent, just ahead of the UK Independence Party"

In other words, Nick believes that by withdrawing from the coalition, a General Election would be called.

This is not what the Fixed Term Parliament Act (sponsored incidentally, by Nick) says at all - as Mark Pack pointed out on Monday.

If we were to withdraw, the most likely course of events is that a Vote of No Confidence would be called. Should this be lost, - as would happen if Labour, our good selves, the SNP and the Alliance all voted against - then in fact, The Queen would invite Ed Miliband to try and form a government. And who knows - maybe he could...

Which, as I've written in the New Statesman, is why Ed Miliband was making overtures to us on Sunday. And why a couple of hours after I posted my piece, Douglas Alexander made 'one of those' offers to us...

And it's been coming for a while. Everyone seems to have missed this quote from Ed Balls last month...

"The only coalition which actually could sort out our economic problems at the moment is a coalition between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, because we are the only ones who understand together what needs to be done.".

Hang on to your hats folks.

I'm not saying any of this is the right thing to do. But it's being talked about...


  1. Absolutely hilarious concept. If the government falls and no new one can be arranged in 14 days, an election must be called. Do you really think the public would accept the second and third placed parties from the last election trying to lash up a deal?

    Even if you could make it happen, there'd be a protest so loud it'd deafen you all. There would have to be a General Election and the Libs would be toast.

    Your best bet is to sit tight, be good, and you've a chance to hang around to 2015. Otherwise, it'll be another 90 years of irrelevance.

  2. I suspect you're right in that there would still be a GE before May 2015 - but not for a while - and would we sink any lower in the polls? I doubt it. And I think you're presuming there would be another coalition - more likely confidence and supply.

    I suspect that the thing Cameron fears most is moving to a C&S arrangement with LD's now - would tie his hands, and the LDs could say what they really think.

    anyway, all good festive debate.

  3. Ed Milliband PM by Christmas ...
    UK credit downgraded by February
    interest rates 10% by March
    Vote of no confidence April
    Tory landslide June

    Bring it on!