'Oh, so that's who Richard Morris is..." Lord Hattersley on The Daily Politics

'An influential activist' - The Guardian

'Iain Dale, without the self loathing' - Matthew Fox in The New Statesman

You are a tinker...' - Tim Farron

Saturday, 3 November 2012

If we were truly a truly democratic party, there's a chance we'd decide shortly to pull out of the coalition...

Now of course, I exaggerate for effect. But still, an alarming statistic reared its head this morning.

The last Lib Dem Voice Members survey highlighted that a significant minority of current members do not support the party being in coalition with the Conservatives - although a significant majority felt we should stay...

On the face of it, a clear endorsement of the status quo. However...

That 21%, if an accurate representation of the mood of the party overall equates to no less than 10275 members (if we had the reported 48932 members at the end of 2011)

But at end of 2010  - the year we entered government - we had a significantly higher membership:  65038. I think it's fair to presume that the 16106 members who left the party in 2011 could be accurately described as not approving of us being in coalition with the Tories.

When combined with the current members who disapprove, this means that 41% of the 2010 membership no longer approve of the coalition with the Conservatives. In fact it's probably higher than that - new members joining for the first time in 2011 are probably supporters of the coalition.

The new survey is about to come out. The magic number is 33.5%. If that number of current members disapprove of the coalition, than a majority of the 2010 membership can be deemed to be against the coalition. And let's not forget that those members approving of the coalitions record was on a net score of just +4% last time.

Which would be quite a moment. And I say that as someone who has consistently supported the coalition (though by no means everything the coalition has done).

I understand from Stephen the survey will appear in the next few days...

Could be time to dial up the differentiation strategy, Nick...

1 comment:

  1. Well.....remember the pink fluffy handcuffs - that's all I have to say!