Lots of quotes from Nick last night at the Parliamentary meeting - including this notable one (which I've taken from the Telegraph):
"The Deputy Prime Minister told a private meeting of more than 100 MPs and peers that he would not play "Russian roulette" with the Conservatives over David Cameron's rejection of a new European treaty.
He said: "I don't want to be the last leader of the Liberal Democrats by provoking a general election today." His speech, which was applauded by the meeting, came as a poll put the Lib Dems on just 12 per cent, just ahead of the UK Independence Party".
In other words, Nick believes that by withdrawing from the coalition, a General Election would be called.
This is not what the Fixed Term Parliament Act (sponsored incidentally, by Nick) says at all - as Mark Pack pointed out on Monday.
If we were to withdraw, the most likely course of events is that a Vote of No Confidence would be called. Should this be lost, - as would happen if Labour, our good selves, the SNP and the Alliance all voted against - then in fact, The Queen would invite Ed Miliband to try and form a government. And who knows - maybe he could...
Which, as I've written in the New Statesman, is why Ed Miliband was making overtures to us on Sunday. And why a couple of hours after I posted my piece, Douglas Alexander made 'one of those' offers to us...
And it's been coming for a while. Everyone seems to have missed this quote from Ed Balls last month...
"The only coalition which actually could sort out our economic problems at the moment is a coalition between the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats, because we are the only ones who understand together what needs to be done.".
Hang on to your hats folks.
I'm not saying any of this is the right thing to do. But it's being talked about...
Wednesday, 14 December 2011
Tuesday, 13 December 2011
7% Interest on 10 year Bonds = Economic Meltdown. It wasn't always the case you know...
And another thing on the Vicky Pryce graph...
For lots of good reasons, it is now generally accepted that if the markets want you to pay more then 7% interest on 10 year sovereign bonds when you try and sell them, you're screwed. Hence the point of no return when Ireland and Portugal asked for bail outs, and the panic ensuing since Italy hovered around that mark (which it still is by the way...)
But as this chart shows (click to enlarge) - pre the 2008 recession, all the countries of The Eurozone were paying more than that - even Germany.
Of course a lot else has changed since. But shows the danger of thinking a 'golden rule' is always, and always will be, a'golden rule'...
For lots of good reasons, it is now generally accepted that if the markets want you to pay more then 7% interest on 10 year sovereign bonds when you try and sell them, you're screwed. Hence the point of no return when Ireland and Portugal asked for bail outs, and the panic ensuing since Italy hovered around that mark (which it still is by the way...)
But as this chart shows (click to enlarge) - pre the 2008 recession, all the countries of The Eurozone were paying more than that - even Germany.
Of course a lot else has changed since. But shows the danger of thinking a 'golden rule' is always, and always will be, a'golden rule'...
Maths can be fun
Well, I bet that title's killed this blog post. So lets add a few other words that might tempt you in. Vicky Pryce (formerly Mrs Huhne), the BBC, Eurogeddon.
Look at this screen grab - it shows Vicky Pryce's selection as the best graph of the year 2011. And you must admit - it's a wowser!! (click to enlarge)
There are several more corkers on this BBC story, where they have asked top economists to choose their 'charts of the year'
You see Maths and economic global meltdown really CAN be fun!!
PS if you like this sort of stuff, do try and get hold of 'Information is Beautiful' by David McCandless. It's terrific.
And if you like that - check out this brilliant website.
Look at this screen grab - it shows Vicky Pryce's selection as the best graph of the year 2011. And you must admit - it's a wowser!! (click to enlarge)
There are several more corkers on this BBC story, where they have asked top economists to choose their 'charts of the year'
You see Maths and economic global meltdown really CAN be fun!!
PS if you like this sort of stuff, do try and get hold of 'Information is Beautiful' by David McCandless. It's terrific.
And if you like that - check out this brilliant website.
May 2010 - all over again
Full text from yesterday's piece in The New Statesman. As ever, would welcome comments here or on The NS comments thread.
It appears to be May 2010 all over again.
A Labour leader is throwing come hither looks at the Nick Clegg. And after celebrating what looked like a victory in the small hours of a Friday morning, one long weekend later and Tory MPs are realising that there may be an orange obstacle preventing them doing anything and everything they want.
Meanwhile, a quirk in the coalition agreement -- that everyone bar Ed Miliband seems to have missed -- is about to take effect.
Let's deal with the Tories first. A certain amount of self-indulgent giggling on Friday at Cameron's "coup" has turned into sorrowful headshaking now that the Lib Dems have (belatedly) called foul.
"Do they understand the concept of collective responsibility?" was the question 18 months ago and is being asked again now. To which the answer is yes, it's a two way street, it applies to governments who have won an outright majority (the Tories didn't), and anyway withdrawing to the margins of Europe isn't in the coalition agreement. This last point gives the Lib Dems carte blanche on the issue of Europe.
For any Tory Eurosceptics reading this, "carte blanche" is a French phrase, which roughly translates as "stuff you".
So what does Cameron do about this? Tories keen to push on from Friday's, ahem, "victory", think he should dissolve the coalition, ditch us pesky coalition non-partners (how quickly they forget) and start repatriating powers from Brussels pronto. They are happy for Cameron to call a general election if he needs to -- no British politician has ever lost out by sticking up two fingers to the French, have they?
Unfortunately for those Eurosceptics, David Cameron can't do that. And what's stopping him? Well, amusingly, it's the Queen. For on 15 September 2011, Her Majesty graciously gave royal assent to the Parliament Act (sponsor: N. Clegg).
This means there can only be a General Election before May 2015 under two circumstances. Either at least two thirds of the entire House of Commons have to agree that it's a jolly good idea, which is unlikely. Or the government has to lose a vote of no confidence.
Now, that could happen. I'm not sure David Cameron would want to call such a vote and end up having to vote against himself in order to bring down his own government, but the option is there for him. Or for Labour.
But that doesn't trigger an election. First Parliament must as examine if an alternative government can be formed from the existing make up of the House...
Hence we hear the clarion call of "I agree with Nick".
There will be plenty who say that won't happen. That it would make the Lib Dems look duplicitous to turn on their Tory partners and the electorate would never forgive them. Ah well, Plus ca change (translation - see above).
Ed Miliband knows that a vote of no confidence from Labour, Lib Dems, Green SNP and Alliance would end with him being Prime Minister without the need for a general election. Support of Plaid and others would make him more secure. The maths couldn't be made to work 18 months ago. But now the Tories have had time to annoy everyone - suddenly it looks a little more likely.
Like I said. It feels like May 2010 all over again...
It appears to be May 2010 all over again.
A Labour leader is throwing come hither looks at the Nick Clegg. And after celebrating what looked like a victory in the small hours of a Friday morning, one long weekend later and Tory MPs are realising that there may be an orange obstacle preventing them doing anything and everything they want.
Meanwhile, a quirk in the coalition agreement -- that everyone bar Ed Miliband seems to have missed -- is about to take effect.
Let's deal with the Tories first. A certain amount of self-indulgent giggling on Friday at Cameron's "coup" has turned into sorrowful headshaking now that the Lib Dems have (belatedly) called foul.
"Do they understand the concept of collective responsibility?" was the question 18 months ago and is being asked again now. To which the answer is yes, it's a two way street, it applies to governments who have won an outright majority (the Tories didn't), and anyway withdrawing to the margins of Europe isn't in the coalition agreement. This last point gives the Lib Dems carte blanche on the issue of Europe.
For any Tory Eurosceptics reading this, "carte blanche" is a French phrase, which roughly translates as "stuff you".
So what does Cameron do about this? Tories keen to push on from Friday's, ahem, "victory", think he should dissolve the coalition, ditch us pesky coalition non-partners (how quickly they forget) and start repatriating powers from Brussels pronto. They are happy for Cameron to call a general election if he needs to -- no British politician has ever lost out by sticking up two fingers to the French, have they?
Unfortunately for those Eurosceptics, David Cameron can't do that. And what's stopping him? Well, amusingly, it's the Queen. For on 15 September 2011, Her Majesty graciously gave royal assent to the Parliament Act (sponsor: N. Clegg).
This means there can only be a General Election before May 2015 under two circumstances. Either at least two thirds of the entire House of Commons have to agree that it's a jolly good idea, which is unlikely. Or the government has to lose a vote of no confidence.
Now, that could happen. I'm not sure David Cameron would want to call such a vote and end up having to vote against himself in order to bring down his own government, but the option is there for him. Or for Labour.
But that doesn't trigger an election. First Parliament must as examine if an alternative government can be formed from the existing make up of the House...
Hence we hear the clarion call of "I agree with Nick".
There will be plenty who say that won't happen. That it would make the Lib Dems look duplicitous to turn on their Tory partners and the electorate would never forgive them. Ah well, Plus ca change (translation - see above).
Ed Miliband knows that a vote of no confidence from Labour, Lib Dems, Green SNP and Alliance would end with him being Prime Minister without the need for a general election. Support of Plaid and others would make him more secure. The maths couldn't be made to work 18 months ago. But now the Tories have had time to annoy everyone - suddenly it looks a little more likely.
Like I said. It feels like May 2010 all over again...
Monday, 12 December 2011
It's May 2010 all over again
My latest post in the New Statesman was published at lunchtime today.
Then 3 hours later Douglas Alexander made it true
They even nicked my picture caption and gave it to him.
What fun!!
Then 3 hours later Douglas Alexander made it true
They even nicked my picture caption and gave it to him.
What fun!!
Selfish, selfish, selfish
This EU business. The general reaction from these shores seems to be all about me, me, me. Or rather us, us, us.
For example, Cameron hasn’t signed the treaty because it’s not 'in Britain’s interests'. And there seems to be a general view from the right that with impending Eurozone disaster on the horizon, thank goodness we’re retiring to a safe distance to rubberneck at the accident. Or as Michael Portillo has put it:
“The euro is a burning building with locked doors, and it seems to be a pretty good idea to be out of that.”
But to me, that’s the real problem.
When your neighbour’s house is on fire, you don’t shrug and say ’thank goodness I live in a large detached house some way from the inferno’. You fight tooth and nail to get into the house to help save them, and then you do everything you can to put the fire out
Isn’t that the right thing to do? Won’t that mean they are more likely to reciprocate next time you find yourself in similar circumstances?
(And as David Cameron himself was pointing out not so long ago, that seems a pretty good way of making sure the fire doesn’t spread next door. I rather think he’s forgotten that).
And this seems to me to be the main problem with the narrative, not just over the last few hours and days, but weeks and months.
It’s all about what’s in my interests or our interests. And not what’s in everyone’s interests.
I’m not saying the Eurozone are any better. I don’t suppose the Frankfurt Group have lost many hours sleep wondering how they can make Britain’s life easier.
But at the end of the day, the European project is about making sure we do all we can for those members of the group who most need it, when they need it.
If I see the Titanic going down – I hope I send my life rafts in its direction. And not just thank God that I missed the boat
For example, Cameron hasn’t signed the treaty because it’s not 'in Britain’s interests'. And there seems to be a general view from the right that with impending Eurozone disaster on the horizon, thank goodness we’re retiring to a safe distance to rubberneck at the accident. Or as Michael Portillo has put it:
“The euro is a burning building with locked doors, and it seems to be a pretty good idea to be out of that.”
But to me, that’s the real problem.
When your neighbour’s house is on fire, you don’t shrug and say ’thank goodness I live in a large detached house some way from the inferno’. You fight tooth and nail to get into the house to help save them, and then you do everything you can to put the fire out
Isn’t that the right thing to do? Won’t that mean they are more likely to reciprocate next time you find yourself in similar circumstances?
(And as David Cameron himself was pointing out not so long ago, that seems a pretty good way of making sure the fire doesn’t spread next door. I rather think he’s forgotten that).
And this seems to me to be the main problem with the narrative, not just over the last few hours and days, but weeks and months.
It’s all about what’s in my interests or our interests. And not what’s in everyone’s interests.
I’m not saying the Eurozone are any better. I don’t suppose the Frankfurt Group have lost many hours sleep wondering how they can make Britain’s life easier.
But at the end of the day, the European project is about making sure we do all we can for those members of the group who most need it, when they need it.
If I see the Titanic going down – I hope I send my life rafts in its direction. And not just thank God that I missed the boat
Friday, 9 December 2011
A Handy 5 minute video guide to Europe in the last 24 hours
An excellent analysis of what's happened, why it's happened and what it means domestically, from the Guardian. This one will run and run...
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