Let's be clear. Cameron has already U turned on Heathrow

David Cameron is dressing up the inquiry he is about to launch into Airport Expansion at Heathrow as not a U turn - because he only promised not to expand Heathrow in the current Parliament.

But that's not true.

Here's what David Cameron said in 2008:

"I think the whole country can agree that the most important priority for Heathrow is making it better, not bigger," Cameron told environmental group leaders. "And yet Gordon Brown is pig-headedly pursuing a third runway just to try and prove a political point. What a ridiculous way to plan for the future."

Cameron said his objections to Heathrow were not just on environmental grounds. "The case for a third runway is based on Heathrow as an even bigger hub airport with a massive increase in the number of transfer passengers," he said. "The economic value of transfer passengers is hotly disputed. And there are so many examples of the hub model going wrong ..."

Even considering a  third runway is a U-turn. Don't let Cameron pretend otherwise

David Cameron has screwed up his evil plan for a 3rd Runway. Good. But Simon Burns. I'll hold you to your words...

So, what a complete cock up David Cameron has made of the aviation plan.

I'm firmly against a third runway in Heathrow. So I was pleased when the MP for Putney was made SoS for Transport 11 months ago. Surely a SW London MP would never allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead. Justine Greening had in fact been fairly mealy mouthed ever since her appointment, confirming that there won't be a change in policy pre 2015 but saying nothing after that. But as she was a West London MP, you felt safe.

David Cameron had apparently not noticed Greening was MP for Putney when he appointed her 11 months ago. And he moved her today, putting an MP with a constituency many miles away from London (who has said he is afraid of flying) in her place.

I was livid.

So, to be fair, was Zac. I was preparing for a by election.

And then, miracle of miracles, Cameron has screwed up again.

He also promoted the No.2 at transport today - Theresa Villiers went to Northern Ireland.

In casting around for a replacement, Cameron chose one Simon Burns, MP for Chelmsford. The other side of London from Heathrow. No problem there...

Cameron seems to have forgotten that Heathrow isn't the only airport in London. What's on the doorstep of Simon Burns? Stanstead. And to his credit Simon Burns is an avowed opponent of expansion there.

And what's more, this has piqued his interest in airports. and guess what? He's an avowed opponent of Heathrow expansion as well...

Here's what he has to say on the subject

So I'm happy to say that Cameron has put an avowed opponent of airport expansion into Transport. and while I would have loved a Zac resignation and by election - I'm happier if Heathrow expansion is getting knocked on the head.

But Mr  Burns. We won't forget your words. No u turns please.

I booed George Osborne at The Paralympics last night. I'm not sorry.

'Surely it can't be' said the man in the next seat when the big screen focused in on the next presenter of a medal. But when the announcer then confirmed that It was indeed George Osborne who was about to dish out the gongs, there was a momentary pause, and everyone, men, women and children starting booing.

Now let's be clear. This wasn't football stadium, aggressive, threatening booing. This was pantomime booing. It was done with smiling faces and every around me was in a fit of giggles for about 5 minutes afterwards, doubly so when someone informed us that it was trending on twitter.

Since then I've been told that I shouldn't have booed, that it was disrespectful and 'what does it say to the world about the UK'. To which I say 'nonsense'.

Firstly, from my point of view I hope it tells the world (and especially David Cameron) 'I think Osborne had done a very poor job, not only do I disagree with Plan A and want a new chancellor (ideally Vince) to enact Plan B. I also think the last budget was a disgrace and you, George Osborne' were incompetent.'

I don't think a polite round of applause would have done that.

Furthermore, I suspect many people at the event were thinking of everything George Osborne has done for the disabled. Hence booing ensued. What else would he expect?

And finally it's probably as well to remember that this crowd - which was probably a pretty broad demographic - all booed. It was a visceral and immediate reaction across the spectrum. I hope that tells the world - and George Osborne something.

No, you're right, it wasn't very respectful - though it was fun. And judging by the media reaction, I'd say the message 80000 people gave the world has got through. So no. I'm not sorry.

Sorry about that.

Poll Results: who do you think is leaving the cabinet today?

Results are in: 

As you read this the reshuffle has probably begun.

Warsi was a clear winner with almost 60% of readers who voted thinking she will get kicked out of the cabinet. Most commentators disagree - saying she will be moved but not removed. We'll see...

A three way tie for second. I believe Cheryl Gillan is out. But with female cabinet ministers at a premium, that may make Caroline Spelman safe. And the smart money is on Jeremy Hunt being promoted. I know...

In the Lib Dems, Michael Moore is the popular guess for leaving. But again most commentators predict no changes in the LDs round the table - though no one, not one single person,  has named Michael Moore by name as staying in post. So perhaps he will be leaving.

And everyone seems to think David Willetts  is safe. the only person on the poll to not get a single vote.

Anyway - not long to wait now...

The final reckoning

Here's what's probably my final reckoning of all the reshuffle speculation over the last few months (since May, when I started tracking it).

To the best of my knowledge, here is the complete list of every name associated with every cabinet post as folk second guess the cabinet reshuffle. If your name's not on the list, no one thinks you're going to that post. If you're the incumbent and you're not on the list, then everyone thinks you're being sacked or moved.

Probably one day left to see if anyone got anything right....

NB. Leader of the Commons Young), Universities Minister (Willetts), Chief Whip, Cabinet Office Minster (Maude), Attorney General and whatever they describe Oliver Letwin as are not in the cabinet - they just attend cabinet. Hence these roles are omitted...

16:37 update: finally saw 'Vince Cable staying at Business' today for the very first time. Amazing

4 sept 12:50 update: for completeness sake was also told yesterday Telegraph had tipped Ming to go to Scots Office. Not happening - but as it had been printed....

Prime Minister

David Cameron

Deputy PM

Nick Clegg

Chancellor of the Exchequer

George Osborne

Vince Cable

William Hague

John Redwood

Philip Hammond

Michael Gove

Theresa May

Foreign Secretary

William Hague

George Osborne

Michael Gove

Home Secretary

Theresa May

Michael Gove

Chris Grayling
Vince Cable

Education

Michael Gove

Liz Truss

Greg Clark

Health

Andrew Lansley

Ken Clarke

Jeremy Hunt

David Laws

Vince Cable

Chief Secretary

Danny Alexander

David Laws

Justice

Nick Herbert

Theresa May

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling

Iain Duncan Smith

Philip Hammond

Ken Clarke

Scottish Secretary

Jo Swinson

Alastair Carmichael
Ming Campbell

Welsh Secretary

Cheryl Gillan

David Jones

Maria Miller

Stephen Crabb

Northern Ireland

David Liddington

Business

Andrew Mitchell

David Laws

Danny Alexander

Margot James
Vince Cable

Environment

Baroness Warsi

Maria Miller

Caroline Spelman

Ed Davey (if the department merges with Energy)

Owen Paterson

Energy

Ed Davey

House of Lords

Lord Howard

Minister without Portfolio (Chair of Tory Party)

Grant Shapps

Michael Fallon

Michael Gove

Jeremy Hunt

Andrew Mitchell

Chris Grayling

Eric Pickles
William Hague

Liam Fox

Justine Greening

Defence

Philip Hammond

Work & Pensions

Iain Duncan Smith

Communities

Eric Pickles

Transport

Andrew Mitchell

Theresa Villiers

Chris Grayling
Jeremy Hunt 

Justine Greening

International Development

Baroness Warsi

Andrew Mitchell

David Liddington

DCMS

Jeremy Hunt

Justine Greening

Ed Vaizey

Hugh Robertson

And while we’re at it – more speculation. People I have seen tipped to be leave (there’s a major surprise in there but I have read it so feel I must be comprehensive) or be promoted to the cabinet.

Tipped to leave

Ken Clarke

Caroline Spelman

Jeremy Hunt

Baroness Warsi

Andrew Lansley

Vince Cable (that’s the surprise)(though I have also read may still attend Cabinet as Leader of the House)

Cheryl Gillan

Justine Greening (or at least a sideways move)

Owen Paterson (still attending cabinet as Leader of the House)

Michael Moore

Ed Davey

Tipped to be Promoted

Grant Shapps

Maria Miller

Chris Grayling

David Laws

Jo Swinson

Alistair Carmichael

Greg Clark

Lynn Featherstone

Andrea Leadsom

Margot James

Anna Soubry

Claire Perry

Nicky Morgan

Harriet Baldwin

Theresa Villiers

Mark Harper

Nick Herbert

Ed Vaizey

Lord Howard

Michael Fallon

David Jones

Liz Truss

John Redwood

David Liddington

Hugh Robertson

Stephen Crabb

Graham Brady

Teflon Cable vs. Nick 'the bad new magnet' Clegg. Discuss

Teflon Tony they used to call him and with good reason. Nothing used to stick. A million people marched on the streets to stop him going into Iraq, the largest demonstration this country has ever seen. He ignored them and went in anyway. 2 years later he won another landslide general election. It's a rare and invaluable quality in a politician. Clinton had it too - that's why he called himself 'The Comeback Kid'.

Nick doesn't have it.

He has the opposite. He's a magnet for bad karma. 

Tuition fees: Nick Cleggs fault

Apparently it's Nick Clegg who has killed the NHS. Even though it was a Tory policy initiative and it was Lib Dems who turned it into something vaguely palatable/less bad (pays your money, takes your choice). And the NHS doesn't appear to be dead

Snooping will be next. A terrible illiberal Tory proposal will be neutered by the Lib Dems - and Nick Clegg will have it hung round his neck. 

And as for idea about 'owning' tax policy...,oh dear....

Now all this may or may not be terribly unfair. But it is perception - and in politics that quickly becomes fact.

Which is why Vince Cable would probably make a successful leader of the party. Because he does have that Teflon quality.

How many folk even in the party, let alone outside, blame Vince for the tuition fees debacle or even associate him with it particularly? Yet it was his policy, his decision - and I have even seen advice to him which suggested he naming it a graduate tax would save many issues, which he ignored. But Teflon like, he has got away with it.

Ditto on Murdoch. The Jeremy Hunt debacle still rumbles on months later - Vince was biased the other way, caught red handed - yet a few days later the matter is forgotten ( probably important to say I think Vince was on the side of the angels there).

This isn't a post saying 'Nick must go'. Apart from anything else, it's the wrong time in the electoral cycle to shift leader. Similarly this isn't a post saying 'Vince for leader'. although I would like to say once again 'Vince for chancellor'. We could do with some Teflon hands in No. 11 right now.

But I do think Nick is unfortunately a magnet for the wrong kind of news while Vince will let bad news slide off him.

And that's a quality the party needs to make the most of.

So many posts. So little time

So, we're back from holiday. Very nice, thanks for asking.

And I'm faced with a quandary.

Do I blog first on the Cabinet Reshuffle. So much to say. So little time. Apparently it's ON tomorrow.

Meantime, there's a badly organised media driven putsch against Nick Clegg swirling around.

OH LORD.

Kid in a sweet shop time. I feel sick...